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Re:For a non-expert, what's different between Bayesian and f... by Scarblac on Friday February 12, 2016 @07:59AM (#11086865)
Intuitively the main problem is that the chance of the machine lying is enormously higher than the chance of the sun going nova. The result of combining them says essentially nothing about the latter anymore.

What's wrong is that it's a useless machine.

Re:For a non-expert, what's different between Bayesian and f... by SideburnsOfDoom on Friday February 12, 2016 @08:03AM (#11086883)
I always thought that it was more about the difficulty of collecting winnings on the bet in the "sun actually gone nova" case. That holds not matter what the odds.
Re:For a non-expert, what's different between Bayesian and f... by ricksplat on Friday February 12, 2016 @08:08AM (#11086902)
It's only useless 1/36 times ... if you ask it a few times you could make a reasonable inference.