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Re:Phantom Time Hypothesis by jerf on Tuesday February 02, 2016 @09:01AM (#11019427)
While imagining changing the entire world's calendar today is too large by a couple orders of magnitude, imagine the task of A: getting an entire continent to change its calendar B: using the by-modern-standards utterly terrible and slow communication methods C: getting absolutely nobody to hold out despite the incredible ease of doing so and the general inclination of people to do so D: leaving no written evidence, commentary in the time, or anything else written that would survive to later dates to make it clear this happened, despite the fact that the only way to communicate this change is via written documentation.

For D, it isn't just about whether the evidence would survive to today, it's about whether it would survive to, say, the grandchildren of the time, who might comment on it themselves.

D is, IMHO, what really clenches it... there is simply no way to do this without a ton of text being generated. You might think, "ah, just tell everyone to destroy the evidence afterwards", but, first rule of history, past people are just as human as you are. There's no way you'd get 100% compliance today; imagine the internet commentary today, imagine telling everybody on the internet to delete all the evidence of a change like this. Not gonna happen.

It's an amusing theory, as I quite enjoy a good conspiracy theory, but it makes no sense. Even the putative motives don't begin to justify such work. Historically speaking, if you are the sort of person who wants to be important to the calendar, you don't put gaps in to line up to nice round powers-of-ten, you call yourself a new calendar and start out with a fresh Year 1.

Re:Phantom Time Hypothesis by nonbel on Tuesday February 02, 2016 @10:40AM (#11020076)
I don't know about this particular phantom time theory, but if you don't have a good calendar you need to keep inserting random days, leading to greater and greater confusion. Changing the calendar was not a big deal under those circumstances, it was normal behavior. Apparently so much so that in Egypt they had the Pharaoh swear he wouldn't change the calendar again upon taking office:

"It must have been, then, that there were local attempts to retain the coincidences between the true and the calendar year — intercalation of days or even of months being introduced, now in one place, now in another ; and these attempts, of course, would make confusion worse confounded^ as the months might vary with tlie district, and not with the time of year.

That this is what really happened is, no doubt, tlie origin of the stringent oath required of the Pharaohs in after times, to which I shall subsequently refer.

[...]

When the year of 365 days was established, it was evidently imagined that finality had been reached ; and, mindful of the confusion which, as we have shown, must have resulted from the attempt to keep up a year of 360 days by intercalations, each Egyptian king, on his accession to the throne, bound himself by oath before the priest of Isis, in the temple of Ptah at Memphis, not to intercalate either days or months, but to retain the year of 365 days as established by the Antiqui.^ The text of the Latin translation preserved by Nigidius Figulus cannot be accurately restored; only thus much can be seen with certainty.

To retain this year of 365 days, then, became the first law for the king, and, indeed, the Pharaohs thenceforth throughout the Avhole course of Egyptian history adhered to it, in spite of their being subsequently convinced, as we shall see, of its inadequacy." https://archive.org/stream/dawnastronomyas00lockgoog/dawnast...

Re:Phantom Time Hypothesis by mikeash on Tuesday February 02, 2016 @09:12AM (#11019487)
Don't forget E: convincing other continents to change their calendars too, lest any historical or astronomical events shared between your cultures reveal the terrible secret.
Re:Phantom Time Hypothesis by nonbel on Tuesday February 02, 2016 @09:28AM (#11019568)
Reports of astronomical events are missing though: http://astrogeo.oxfordjournals.org/content/44/2/2.22/F7.expa...
Re:Phantom Time Hypothesis by delazeur on Tuesday February 02, 2016 @12:34PM (#11020897)
Even if there were no verifiable astronomical records during the period in question, wouldn't there still be discrepancies related to events from before that period?
Re:Phantom Time Hypothesis by nonbel on Tuesday February 02, 2016 @02:17PM (#11021715)
Apparently there are: http://www.setterfield.org/Dodwell_manuscript_1.html

Edit: I have no idea how accurate any of this stuff is. From my little experience trying to figure out the origins of historical claims I have learned it is very difficult to do so. Poor citing practices abound.

Re:Phantom Time Hypothesis by mikeash on Tuesday February 02, 2016 @09:31AM (#11019583)
What do you mean, "missing," and what's the relevance of that graph?
Re:Phantom Time Hypothesis by nonbel on Tuesday February 02, 2016 @09:41AM (#11019619)
Do you not see the gaps of hundreds of years with no known eclipse data?
Re:Phantom Time Hypothesis by mikeash on Tuesday February 02, 2016 @09:49AM (#11019670)
I see one gap of about 250 years, at a time irrelevant to the idea in question. And note that continuity is not required, merely commonality: if two distinct civilizations observe the same astronomical event then that gives you a point to synchronize their calendars.

Failing to record eclipses doesn't seem very remarkable. There are on average about 1.5 lunar eclipses per year. Clearly people throughout history were not recording every single one. Even the densest parts of your graph are missing most of them.

Edit: also note that this graph is "timed" eclipses only. I take that to mean that it only includes eclipses which were not only observed and recorded, but for which the record includes the local time of day of the event. This is necessary for measuring the Earth's long term change in rotation, as that slide does, but unnecessary for synchronizing calendars.

Re:Phantom Time Hypothesis by nonbel on Tuesday February 02, 2016 @10:07AM (#11019814)
Thanks for the feedback. I think those are the "high-quality" reports, but I wonder what the date distribution of the other eclipses looks like.

On the off chance you are familiar with this type of research, do you have any conception for how accurate dates like these are and how they were arrived at? I find it very difficult to find out what the ground truth evidence is for any historical (ie pre-printing press) data.

Re:Phantom Time Hypothesis by mikeash on Tuesday February 02, 2016 @11:12AM (#11020302)
I'm afraid I'm not familiar, I've just been searching around a bit here. I'd assume that accuracy varies a ton. You'd get ballpark reverse-engineered "it was around this year, so must have been this event" stuff from pre-writing cultures, all the way to pretty exact dates and maybe even times from e.g. Chinese court astronomers.
Re:Phantom Time Hypothesis by nonbel on Tuesday February 02, 2016 @03:16PM (#11022169)
>"I'm not sure where you're going with this. Are you just ignoring all of the important reasons the proposed calendar gap couldn't possibly exist, and proposing some way you think it could have happened?"

Pretty much. I start to doubt the importance of what I read when it becomes difficult to figure out where/what/when of the underlying data. At that point it seems ok to wildly speculate and see if any testable predictions come out of it.

I haven't put forth that much effort at this (it's more of an interesting "waiting for something else to finish" type task), but still find it curious I have had so much difficulty following, or even finding, citations to the original sources.

Re:Phantom Time Hypothesis by nonbel on Tuesday February 02, 2016 @01:21PM (#11021254)
Another thing is this custom: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Damnatio_memoriae

Imagine that applied on a large scale after a revolt or war. The enemy would be so vilified a law would be passed to wipe the time they were in power from history.

Then later generations try to piece together what happened and can't tell whether that "forgotten" dynasty lasted 100 or 200 years, but they do their best and guess 200 years (nope it was 100). Then we base our history off records of that earlier guesswork.

Re:Phantom Time Hypothesis by mikeash on Tuesday February 02, 2016 @02:49PM (#11021971)
I'm not sure where you're going with this. Are you just ignoring all of the important reasons the proposed calendar gap couldn't possibly exist, and proposing some way you think it could have happened?