The catch with your logic is that "The odds of any person getting struck by lightning is 1 in 10000" is sloppy phrasing. Of the number of people studied, one ten-thousandth of them got struck by lightning, but lightning does not, as you have observed, choose people at random among those 10,000. Some people are constantly indoors; some are constantly outdoors. Some live in places with frequent thunderstorms; some don't. The only way to get that 1/10000 probability is to pick a person randomly. Picking Roy Sullivan isn't random; neither is picking me.

"The probability of a randomly-selected 1024-bit number passing this primarily test without being prime is 2^-80" is a much more precise statement, because you have selected that number randomly. Obviously, if you have a specific number in mind, the probability of that number being a false positive is either 0 or 1. It either is prime, or it isn't.

Remember that there is no such thing as a random number; there is only a randomized process for selecting numbers.