There are countless other possible causes that are much more probable than M-R returning a false positive. What should we do about all of them? Start ruling them out, one by one, sure, but in which order? Common sense says we should do it in the order of decreasing prior probability. The hypothesis "M-R returned a false positive" is there somewhere, in the space of all possible hypotheses, and we'll surely encounter it after all other more likely alternatives are exhausted. I bet we don't have to go that far.