By ending up being the only one who was correct about a catastrophe warning, and being vocal about it in the aftermath, you somehow implicitly throw everyone else under the bus.

Since "everyone else" > "you", majority rules, you go.

It's a bureaucracy problem. I've seen it, and it's also gotten me at least once, when I decided to stick up for principles. My ego left intact, my job did not.

This is also why getting fired should not automatically carry a negative stigma.

I have a counterpoint- I bet that, given any risky endeavour, there are ALWAYS some naysayers/doubters. So the probability that someone at an organization ends up being correct when a disaster occurs, is probably fairly high. Thus, just because you won the disaster prediction lottery, may not entitle you to as much acclaim as you might think.