Why not? That's a very strong statement. I could think of a countless number of bets that trivially match your criteria (i.e. even odds Facebook will not stop selling ads this year), that you'd be crazy not to take.

There are lots of reasons. But I looked at your comment history and decided not to jump on the "interpreting discussion threads as logic statements" train with you. Apologies.

Fair enough. Do you think informal discussions benefit from a focus on thematic engagement, rather than logical minutiae?