It's the latter (0.74% of today's total usage, therefore 0.37% if the world's energy usage doubles).
That's the answer I was hoping for :-) Thanks!
Additionally, can only improve with increasing processor efficiencies over time too (unless this is also predicted for in the model) - though saying that increasing processing power is accounted for in Bitcoin itself, with the work getting progressively harder, so this may be moot
If the latter, 0.74% seems less alarming, as it would surely be less when growth is accounted for, especially considering that some of this growth would likely (hypothetically) be driven by an increase in both production and consumption as a direct consequence of the use of Bitcoin, with all the benefits that brings.
But either way, it does still seem moderately alarming, albeit as a kneejerk reaction to the figure without much critical analysis. It's a very interesting economic question as to whether investing this order of energy consumption into Bitcoin would be worth it, both for individuals and for society(ies). I expect many an economics PhD will be minted on this very topic!