I'm no expert here. I'm simply parroting what the scientists at the Nuclear Energy Agency have reported.

OK, but remember that the experts said the same thing about oil and natural gas, and were wrong in that case. Here the estimate of ~10 megatonnes assumes that seawater extraction will never be economically viable, one possible source of error.

If you're interested in the history of "peak resources" here is a good book about Paul Ehrlich's famous bet with Julian L. Simon:

http://www.amazon.com/The-Bet-Ehrlich-Julian-Earth%C2%92s/dp...

> Do you have reason to believe this will not happen?

What's kind of amazing is that people don't believe that we will develop a solar powered technique to extract carbon the from the atmosphere and create liquid fuels.

Like an artificial plant? If it is possible to engineer something that works better (and there is no reason to believe it is impossible) that would be a huge event.

You may be interest in:

"A New Dawn for Industrial Photosynthesis"

http://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007%2Fs11120-011-96...