Why not start by building a landing page and seeing if you can get at least a few hundred people to sign up? Seems like a much easier way to determine if the market's there than diving in head first.
Honestly? Because if I can't sell it, I'll give it away, its something I badly wish existed for my mum over the last few years so if I can't make a living on it I'll host it for free and fund through my current business as a donation.
The product I want to build next is a niche product for a very specific (but quite large in absolute) terms demographic, profit per user (after tax/VAT/Hosting minus staff) is approx $6 per month, at 500 users I'd be doubling my current income, at a 1000 I'd be able to work on it full time, at 2000 I'd be very comfortable, anymore than that would just be gravy.
It's not even a difficult build (I've built much more complex projects for clients) but the market doesn't exist at all (which means it's either a really good idea (unlikely) or a terrible idea (more likely)).
In either case I'm gonna give it a shot since it's a product I'd have bought if it existed immediately and happily.