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A comment on Etsy stock has lost 76% of its value in 9 months. Parent comment

Re:Etsy stock has lost 76% of its value in 9 months by sly_foxx on Friday January 15, 2016 @06:37PM (#10913151)
Agree. Airbnb's valuation is very close to eBay's. So, that means that it's expected that in the near future AirBnB will generate at least $2-3 billion in net profits per year. Actually, it would have to be more than that, because investors expect even higher valuation on IPO. Peter Thiel stated he thinks AirBnB will be $100+ billion company, which would imply he expects at least $7 billion after tax profits in the near future.

Let's compare eBay to AirBnB.

eBay incorporated in 1996, AirBnB in 2008. After 6 years of existing, eBay's revenue in 2002 was $1.21 billion[profitable]. AirBnB's revenue after 6 years is $400+ million[not profitable].

Now, eBay got that revenue+profits by 2002 when:

> (1) there were only few hundred million people online - 7x less than now. Slow internet connection, ugly websites, no mobile.

> (2) people were somewhat insecure about transacting online and paying was pain in the ass.

> (3) they were only popular in the US, UK, AU and had recently entered Germany.

Compare that to AirBnB, which after the same number of years operates in environment where:

> (1) there are over 3 billion people online.

> (2) payments online are very common(booking hotels pioneered by other companies) and easy.

> (3) says it operates in 190 countries, 20+ languages.

Even after all these advantages, they only got 1/3 of eBay's revenue in 2002 with the same current valuation.

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Re:Etsy stock has lost 76% of its value in 9 months by nl on Friday January 15, 2016 @07:18PM (#10913383)
AirBNBs revenue is over 1.2B, 340M per quarter. http://skift.com/2015/11/23/airbnb-revenue-now-larger-than-c...
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Re:Etsy stock has lost 76% of its value in 9 months by sly_foxx on Friday January 15, 2016 @07:39PM (#10913491)
$340 was for Q3, which is when most people take vacations and doesn't reflect other quarters. The projection for 2015 was $800-900 million.

But, that is year 2015, which is 7th year since they incorporated and I was writing about first 6 years of existence.

For the record, eBay's revenue in 2003 (7th year of existence) was $2.2 billion.

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