Mostly history. Specifically the history of such predictions made by smart people of their own time that never came to pass.
I assure you, this has all been predicted before. AI taking over the earth is always a decade away.
There are people who wear tin-foil hats and there are those that sell tin-foil hats.
The former think they're saving the world, while the latter are just making money off of the former. It's the same business model as religion and global warming.
But there's a different kind of "prediction", which I think is the type those smart people subscribe to - that we are on the path to an AI, that there's nothing that would make it impossible to achieve as the technology progresses (a reminder: we have a working example that intelligence can be built - our brains). Of course there are a lot of obstacles on the way. Personally, the most probable is that our civilization ends before we reach the necessary level - because of war, or all the economic and political shenanigans we see every day.
And nice, you managed to cram global warming denial in there too.
Wrong/correct? We're talking about predictions, so let's talk about probability.
In the course of 20 years is it more probable that life will look more like it does today or that AI will make us all jobless?
That is why I'm "more likely" right and Elon is "more likely" wrong.
I'll put money down on it. If, in 10 years, it only takes 1 employee per shift to run an entire McDonalds, I'll give you $1,000.
And yes, I don't believe your single factor over-fit models prove anything about global warming. I'll put money down on that too.
I can't say I've seen that said. Any sources? Most predictions I've seen for AI surpassing human intelligence are for mid 21st century. The reasoning isn't rocket science. I wrote an essay about it for some school exam 34 years ago. If you discount the religious stuff then brains are biological computers of roughly fixed ability and regular computers are less able but get better each year. If so, they'll overtake and you can kind of graph it and make a rough estimate of when.