Re:G.M. Invests $500M in Lyft
by x0x0 on Monday January 04, 2016 @03:12PM
(#10838186)
I disagree completely, on two grounds:
1 - I think the tech will be there.
2 - Once the tech is there, there will be incredibly fast adoption for a simple reason: price.
First, insurance rates. Right now, you get discounts for eg the sensors in your volvo that warn about vehicles next to you if you turn your blinkers on. Autonomous driving will be like that but on steroids. Insurers will rapidly price in cost falls from autonomous driving.
A second huge cost increase to non-autonomous driving will come from juries. Right now, as a society, we accept car accidents as part of the cost of a modern society because there is no alternative to heavy use of vehicles. Humans driving cars means you will inevitably have accidents. Even if you kill someone in an accident, as long as there isn't negligence on your part, you generally will have nothing happen to you besides increased insurance costs. The second there is an alternative to a human driving, I expect civil juries to start returning large awards and laws to change to include jail sentences. Not to mention coming down hard on things like drunk or impaired driving. eg in WI you can basically get a couple DUIs before the state gets serious about penalties. That will change in a hurry.
1 - I think the tech will be there.
2 - Once the tech is there, there will be incredibly fast adoption for a simple reason: price.
First, insurance rates. Right now, you get discounts for eg the sensors in your volvo that warn about vehicles next to you if you turn your blinkers on. Autonomous driving will be like that but on steroids. Insurers will rapidly price in cost falls from autonomous driving.
A second huge cost increase to non-autonomous driving will come from juries. Right now, as a society, we accept car accidents as part of the cost of a modern society because there is no alternative to heavy use of vehicles. Humans driving cars means you will inevitably have accidents. Even if you kill someone in an accident, as long as there isn't negligence on your part, you generally will have nothing happen to you besides increased insurance costs. The second there is an alternative to a human driving, I expect civil juries to start returning large awards and laws to change to include jail sentences. Not to mention coming down hard on things like drunk or impaired driving. eg in WI you can basically get a couple DUIs before the state gets serious about penalties. That will change in a hurry.