That's a reasonable theory. Marijuana is not (currently) physically addicting, though I wouldn't put it past the tobacco companies to figure out ways to make it physically addicting and brand specific in its addictive properties...I'd even bet they're working on it. So, in that regard is may be similar to wine, which though it does contain an addictive substance, most addicts are not wine drinkers as it is a very expensive source of alcohol.

I still tend to think it will shake out similarly to tobacco, moreso than wine, but it's an interesting thought experiment to consider which substance it more resembles and how it will end up being regulated, taxed, and corporatized, in the long term as legalization spreads.