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Re:Raspberry Pi Zero vs. Elliott 405 by andrepd on Monday December 07, 2015 @06:45PM (#10693697)
A funny exercise, though sadly we will not see the growth rates we saw this past decades for the next 50 years.
Re:Raspberry Pi Zero vs. Elliott 405 by gozo on Monday December 07, 2015 @07:00PM (#10693770)
While "raw" progress is always fun, there's so much untapped potential in software that I'm not sure how much it matters. You stick one, two, three or a hundred ARM chips in a computer and, currently, it wouldn't really matter. The limits today are things like ecosystem, development process, robustness etc. at least for personal computer applications.
Re:Raspberry Pi Zero vs. Elliott 405 by sklogic on Tuesday December 08, 2015 @06:12AM (#10695763)
Yes, today it would not really matter. But in the early 90s we knew what to do with such a massively parallel architecture - see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transputer and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Occam_(programming_language)
Re:Raspberry Pi Zero vs. Elliott 405 by onion2k on Tuesday December 08, 2015 @03:45AM (#10695414)
In terms of the hardware you hold in your hand, you're right. Progress is slowing down as the challenges to moving forwards become harder to solve, and as the reasons to move forwards change (e.g. power consumption over raw speed).

However, in terms of the accessible hardware I think we already have that practically limitless supercomputing power in our hands. The paradigm shift is in the realisation that "your computer" is a device that computes things, regardless of where it computes things, rather than being the beige box in the corner. With a little code and enough cash I can access millions of CPUs and terabytes of RAM from my phone. The fact that computing power isn't actually in my phone doesn't matter in the least.

The computing revolution is the network, not the CPU.

Re:Raspberry Pi Zero vs. Elliott 405 by timoth on Tuesday December 08, 2015 @04:11AM (#10695469)
Reminds me of Sun over 20 years ago: "The network is the computer".
Re:Raspberry Pi Zero vs. Elliott 405 by 72deluxe on Tuesday December 08, 2015 @04:51AM (#10695565)
I agree. I remember seeing that slogan and thought it was backwards or mixed up, but in truth it makes sense.

It's a pity that the networks we currently use cannot be guaranteed to be secure and that there is strong emphasis on undoing decades of good work in microcomputers by shoving data to the other side of the world instead of using it locally!

Re:Raspberry Pi Zero vs. Elliott 405 by seanp2k2 on Tuesday December 08, 2015 @05:52AM (#10695713)
Consider who owns the networks which form the Internet and their motives, as well as who end-users are paying for Internet access.
Re:Raspberry Pi Zero vs. Elliott 405 by sklogic on Tuesday December 08, 2015 @04:48AM (#10695558)
Dare to say the same thing from the Tube (or simply from a tunnel)?
Re:Raspberry Pi Zero vs. Elliott 405 by onion2k on Tuesday December 08, 2015 @04:58AM (#10695588)
Sure. Availability is a different problem to computing power, but they'll both be solved by network improvements. Underground metro systems will need cell towers (or just repeaters) in order to solve the lack of signal problem, but that's relatively simple. I imagine it's just a matter of cost and politics that stops them now. Alternatively, tube trains could have their own wifi that connects users to the internet.

Further into the future it's possible (although unlikely in my opinion) that we could use a mesh network to relay signals along series of other people's devices until it gets to a place where there's a connection to a cell tower available. The power requirements would be a problem, and there's the issue of data privacy, but it's theoretically possible.

Re:Raspberry Pi Zero vs. Elliott 405 by sklogic on Tuesday December 08, 2015 @06:08AM (#10695756)
> but they'll both be solved by network improvements

We won't ever have a 100% coverage (with a free roaming and all that). It's impossible.

> Underground metro systems will need cell towers

You'd have to wait few more centuries for this to happen. They still can't get rid of the signalling system from the 1890s.

> Alternatively, tube trains could have their own wifi that connects users to the internet.

They can't even consistently communicate with the train drivers at the moment.

> a mesh network to relay signals along series of other people's devices

In a middle of a desert, in an open ocean, in a taiga, on a spacecraft light seconds away from the Earth?

No way. We still need to cram as much compute power into as little space as possible. All the cloud fancy stuff is nowhere near a substitution for it. And no network improvements would ever overcome the speed of light limitations on latency.

Re:Raspberry Pi Zero vs. Elliott 405 by onion2k on Tuesday December 08, 2015 @06:44AM (#10695837)
In a middle of a desert, in an open ocean, in a taiga, on a spacecraft light seconds away from the Earth?

I'm sure there'll be edge cases where it won't work and we'll need other options. That's fine. It doesn't detract from the point that having a connected device that can access a cloud computing platform is exceptionally useful in 99.99% of cases. I'm not suggesting that means we can stop all mobile device innovation.

Re:Raspberry Pi Zero vs. Elliott 405 by sklogic on Tuesday December 08, 2015 @06:58AM (#10695890)
> I'm sure there'll be edge cases where it won't work and we'll need other options.

This is exactly the unfortunate attitude of most of the mobile apps developers. Exactly the reason why I can't use most of the apps, even the high profile ones like the BBC News. They must understand that it's not anywhere close to 99.99% of cases, that a good connection is available more like 10% of an active time, and, therefore, a great deal of caching and prefetching is mandatory. If most of the time most of the functionality of my mobile device is not available I'd rather stick to the tiny subset that is available consistently and ignore the rest.

And I suspect that most big cities got a similar patchy coverage pattern as in London.

Re:Raspberry Pi Zero vs. Elliott 405 by girvo on Monday December 07, 2015 @06:47PM (#10693707)
While I honestly agree, people have been saying that for decades...
Re:Raspberry Pi Zero vs. Elliott 405 by mahyarm on Monday December 07, 2015 @07:11PM (#10693837)
A decade ago, you could make the pi zero at the same size for a higher price. 20 years ago it would be hard.
Re:Raspberry Pi Zero vs. Elliott 405 by sklogic on Tuesday December 08, 2015 @03:39AM (#10695401)
Moore's law held faithfully for decades. Not any more.
Re:Raspberry Pi Zero vs. Elliott 405 by tim333 on Tuesday December 08, 2015 @09:52AM (#10696618)
>sadly we will not see the growth rates we saw

Maybe although if you look at Kurzweil's graph, and he may be cranky but I think his data is fairly ok, things have been speeding up in terms of computing / per dollar. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JIw8CQB8prg&feature=youtu.be...

I don't see much reason why that can't continue. Some things like clock frequency hit limits but a Raspberry Pi equivalent was roughly $25 a couple of years back, $5 now and could be $0.0005 in the future.

Re:Raspberry Pi Zero vs. Elliott 405 by xolve on Tuesday December 08, 2015 @03:28AM (#10695374)
Since likes of Bill Gates and Lord Kelvin couldn't predict future of science and technology, I prefer never to indulge in what mayn't be possible, unless its theoretically impossible or improbable(P ≠ NP).