If p=np were indeed independent, we could make it an axiom. Then we could do a complete search for a polynomial algorithm for 3sat, and we would be guaranteed to succeed.
Since computing is somewhat a model of the physical world, something like this would surprise me. It seems like computing being modeled on the physical world, the model must contain the answer to the question. But who knows.
A search for a provably polynomial algorithm will fail, but that doesn't mean that an unprovably polynomial time algorithm couldn't exist. We might come up with strong arguments for why a particular algorithm would be polynomial in practice. Still, I'd say "independent but false" is more likely than "independent but true."
However, the thought occurred to me that perhaps p=np could reduce to some undecidable problem (in the halting problem-sense). In that case, solving p=np would be impossible. But we could prove that it's impossible, and the issue would be resolved.
I'm not sure whether this scenario makes any sense. That's why I asked the question.
Notwithstanding that, I don't see how any of this relates to my original question.
Given a program P, it is undecidable whether that program will halt. There is an answer: P either halts or it doesn't. There is just no way to find out (in general).
A good overview of this in a reasonably accessible format can be found here: http://www.scottaaronson.com/blog/?p=710
The same author wrote a good treatment of the implications of the undecidability of P=NP: http://www.scottaaronson.com/papers/pnp.pdf
Scott Aaronson is probably one of the best at explaining theoretical computer science, if you're interested in these topics you should follow his blog.