Re:Impact of Interest Rate Changes on the Automobile Market
by _yosefk on Tuesday November 24, 2015 @02:48AM
(#10619622)
100 basis point is 1% (why they don't just call it 1% I don't know, that'd be more readable for 9900 BP of readers...)
Now, 100 BP is what, 10x larger than the long-awaited "first rate hike in a decade"? Why do they even discuss such a "drastic" rate change? It'd take years for the interest rate to climb that much at the speed they say they intend to raise it and then it would no longer be a "shock increase" of the sort they discuss.
Re:Impact of Interest Rate Changes on the Automobile Market
by var_eps on Tuesday November 24, 2015 @03:22AM
(#10619711)
Why is the rate change important? For two main reasons:
1) it signals the intention of the FED to actively use its tools to manage the growth of the economy as opposed to uncritically encouraging it;
2) even a token charge decreases the demand for what was once free and breaks a crucial psychological barrier for further increases in the future (see point 1; also, the freemium model in apps for an analogy).
So any change upwards really matter after nearly a decade of decreases and the zero-bound rates.
Basis points communicate the absolute change rather than the relative change to remove ambiguity. For example, consider a 1% interest rate: if it goes up by 100 BPS, the new rate is 2%; if by 1%, the new rate is 1.01%.
Re:Impact of Interest Rate Changes on the Automobile Market
by HiLo on Tuesday November 24, 2015 @10:04AM
(#10621072)
They're far more worried about the differential between the Federal Funds Rate and the Natural / Wicksellian Rate, which is what they attempt to follow with the Federal Funds Rate, rather than the outright magnitude of the move.
Re:Impact of Interest Rate Changes on the Automobile Market
by dnautics on Tuesday November 24, 2015 @04:17AM
(#10619861)
the graphs in this are shockingly laughable and belie the complete insanity of macroeconomic dogma. To compare, I once simulated electron transfers between iron-sulfur clusters in an enzyme and, not knowing the exact kinetic parameters, used a monte carlo method to estimate variational effects. (https://docs.google.com/document/d/1yeiOE1Gy0YoPXlLdMo9y8XSS...)
The graphs, accordingly, show confidence intervals and are most certainly not smooth or simple.
Now, 100 BP is what, 10x larger than the long-awaited "first rate hike in a decade"? Why do they even discuss such a "drastic" rate change? It'd take years for the interest rate to climb that much at the speed they say they intend to raise it and then it would no longer be a "shock increase" of the sort they discuss.
So any change upwards really matter after nearly a decade of decreases and the zero-bound rates.
Basis points communicate the absolute change rather than the relative change to remove ambiguity. For example, consider a 1% interest rate: if it goes up by 100 BPS, the new rate is 2%; if by 1%, the new rate is 1.01%.
The graphs, accordingly, show confidence intervals and are most certainly not smooth or simple.