Re:The German Tank Problem (2010)
by sliverstorm on Friday November 06, 2015 @12:37PM
(#10520673)
You have a key error.
Take the highest serial number, add that number divided by the sample size, subtract one.
You can then intuitively observe that as sample size increases, the "m/n" component shrinks- our highest serial number is probably going to be a lot closer to the maximum. As sample size decreases all the way to 1, the "m/n" component grows- our largest sampled serial number is probably not very close to the maximum.
Take the highest serial number, add that number divided by the sample size, subtract one.
You can then intuitively observe that as sample size increases, the "m/n" component shrinks- our highest serial number is probably going to be a lot closer to the maximum. As sample size decreases all the way to 1, the "m/n" component grows- our largest sampled serial number is probably not very close to the maximum.