Re:A woman who can smell Parkinson's disease
by klodolph on Thursday October 22, 2015 @07:26PM
(#10435868)
There's a missing variable here: she claimed that she can tell the difference.
We are interested in the following calculation:
P(skill|claim&data) = P(claim&data|skill) x P(skill) / P(claim&data)
The upper limit of P(claim&data) is P(claim). If P(claim) were above 10^-4, I think the researchers would have met somebody else with the claim, so 10^-4 is a reasonable pessimistic value.
We are interested in the following calculation:
The upper limit of P(claim&data) is P(claim). If P(claim) were above 10^-4, I think the researchers would have met somebody else with the claim, so 10^-4 is a reasonable pessimistic value.So, Bayesian reasoning won't save you here.