Check out Tesla's live shipping code:
http://jalopnik.com/teslas-autopilot-system-is-awesome-and-c...
Are you predicting that cars will never be fully autonomous?
Traffic with lots of agents potentially interacting with every other agent, hence my chaos analogy, lots and lots of variable, ... is blurry.
There's successful research to describe multi agents collision avoidance but I've never seen it used on the field yet.
ps: reminds me airplanes vs car accident rates. Even if flying is inherently complex in itself, there's almost no traffic and almost no obstacle in air. Nobody would crash a car alone in the desert.
Different aircraft are by and large keeping to the same standard routes, altitudes and holding patterns, which is why mid-air collisions are a thing. (The reason they keep to standards is to make air traffic control easier.)
By the way, I find that making a prediction causes me to net out the different aspects of an issue quickly, and snaps me out of the mode of enumerating pros and cons. That's why I asked.
The central logic seems to be that humanity is starting from scratch building self driving cars, versus all the years of experience decades ago trying to automate spacecraft and submersibles.
Oddly, I reach entirely the opposite conclusion. The article reminds us that even decades ago, with rudimentary computers, engineers developed systems that landed men on the moon and returned them to earth.
This article has made it even easier for me to imagine a car taking a fully autonomous trip to a McDonald's drive through, given the state of deep/machine learning, low cost computers a million times faster, and big advances in sensors, Yes there will be a person supervising the car for a while, of course that's true. But it's only a matter of time before our children are surprised that humans were allowed to drive cars, causing millions of deaths.