Re:The pace of major breakthroughs has declined
by ZenoArrow on Sunday October 11, 2015 @04:02PM
(#10370696)
> "Counting R&D costs, plus the fact that it still doesn't work, implies an ROI that would make anyone agree."
The work on nuclear fusion is broader than the tokamak approach you're alluding to. All other forms of fusion have had far lower levels of investment.
Re:The pace of major breakthroughs has declined
by duaneb on Sunday October 11, 2015 @04:06PM
(#10370716)
I'm not aware of any fusion reactor that has "broken even" with just collecting the energy investment. Until that happens, total efficiency for "nuclear fusion" is going to continue to plummet.
Re:The pace of major breakthroughs has declined
by ZenoArrow on Sunday October 11, 2015 @04:14PM
(#10370749)
If some of the predicted timelines about excess energy generation from nuclear fusion turn out to be true then it'll work out to be cheaper than coal, even in the short-to-medium term after that goal is reached. It's too early to write such predictions off, unless you know something I don't know about the future.
Counting R&D costs, plus the fact that it still doesn't work, implies an ROI that would make anyone agree.
I think "breakthroughs" (e.g. discontinuous breaks in research where research is leapfrogged) are slowing down. This doesn't imply scientific or technological advancements are slowing down, which I think you misread. All the author is arguing is that maybe we should reconsider investing our money in hugely expensive projects whose success is completely unbounded EXPECTING breakthroughs. This just seems rational.