Re:Forecasting is a talent – luckily it can be learned
by aynsof on Friday September 25, 2015 @01:45AM
(#10276545)
So you're suggesting instead that 'superforecasters' exist, but that they haven't been discovered by finance? It'd be a pretty lucrative market for people able to predict the future. I think it's far more likely that it's less than excellent science.
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Re:Forecasting is a talent – luckily it can be learned
by XFrequentist on Friday September 25, 2015 @09:57AM
(#10278131)
I'm struck that with a tiny bit of research you could figure out yourself if/how they accounted for the possibility of luck (hint: they did).