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Re:Can Economic Growth Last? by Joeri on Monday September 14, 2015 @06:43AM (#10214459)
The thing that makes GDP unsuitable in my view is that it measures destructive activity as being equal in value to constructive activity. You tear down a house, build an identical one in its place, and while nothing of value has been created, the GDP has received a sizable boost. Yes, people got paid for doing those things, but it would have been better had they been paid to produce something of value instead.
Re:Can Economic Growth Last? by rayiner on Monday September 14, 2015 @09:20AM (#10214886)
It's well-known that GDP is susceptible to the broken window fallacy because it doesn't measure destruction of capital. Consequently, it dramatically overstates the GDP of resource-rich nations. When Saudi sells a barrel of oil, that $75 is counted towards its GDP. But the actual value-add is $75 minus the value of oil in the ground, which is a much smaller number.
Re:Can Economic Growth Last? by collyw on Monday September 14, 2015 @01:29PM (#10216224)
So why do we bother with it?
Re:Can Economic Growth Last? by haberman on Monday September 14, 2015 @12:20PM (#10215845)
I think a better example would be: paying to have a house built and then paying to tear it down.

Another good example could be: think about the cost spent every year for lawyers to write EULAs or liability waivers that nobody reads, or to file tax returns that comply with our super complicated tax code. If the underlying legal system was simpler and/or less friendly to these liability lawsuits, the same effect could be had without needing any of those legal/professional billable hours.

Re:Can Economic Growth Last? by nmrm2 on Monday September 14, 2015 @07:26AM (#10214571)
> nothing of value has been created

That's debatable, because no one tears down a house and rebuilds an identical one.

* Was the old house livable? If not, then you haven't really wasted anything.

* Is the new house up to more rigid environmental standards?

* Does the new house take up more (less) space?

* Is the new house wired/piped in a different way?

etc.

Re:Can Economic Growth Last? by netcan on Monday September 14, 2015 @07:38AM (#10214596)
It's not an invalid example. It shows that GDP has some weirdness. It's just not a scenario likely to be common enough to cause problems. But, it does demonstrate the leaky abstraction.

There are also scenarios that break GDP but not homo economicus logic. What happens when a woman starts working and paying for childcare? Do you subtract the childcare she is no longer directly providing as negative GDP? Do you just add on this new service as growth, even though the kids are not getting and more hours of "childcare?" This is a real problem with data pre 1960s and post 1980s. GDP can't measure those.

That's the economic equivalent of bulldozing a house and building a new one. There's a surplus, economic or otherwise but there is an unmeasured destruction too, parenting hours are reduced. We only count paid work so when one increases at the expense of another, the GDP abstraction leaks.

What happens if important new products and services are free, like Wikipedia, Khan Academy, etc? What happens when you can buy a £500 android phone for £200? Do you do an inflation adjustment that counts the value of all £200 iphones produced @ £500?

The real world mixes these up in ways that GDP can't really handle.

Re:Can Economic Growth Last? by parasubvert on Monday September 14, 2015 @08:10AM (#10214689)
If one looks at this more broadly, the examples you bring up have to do with the fact that not everything can be reduced to monetary or market exchange (a distressing thought to some libertarians). This is more of the underlying problem than GDP itself which is "just" an accounting equation... Which is hard to use when there is nothing to account.

The question for society is , does this even really matter? We never used to subject ourselves to economics and markets as the totalizing sphere of human achievement, it was one of several areas of social organization alongside community, politics, family, religion, etc. We only start caring about this stuff when we want to compute dubious universal ultility functions and the like.

Re:Can Economic Growth Last? by netcan on Monday September 14, 2015 @09:13AM (#10214863)
This is a little unfair to (intelligent) libertarians. A similar argument could be made for socialists or welfarists. They all rely on "economics" in the sense that they are quantifying and describing the dynamics of economic activity. Thoughtful libertarians know that these measures and models are representations of reality, not reality.

In fact, a fairly important figure in "neoliberal" thought is Hayek. Hayek (and Hayekians) argue that not only is the economy difficult to quantify and describe formally, it is impossible. In his frameworks price and choice are conveyors for knowledge.

I would even say that the most serious hubris in this vein has been the Stalinist and Maoist "5 year plan" which aimed to quantify economies in accounting terms.

Re:Can Economic Growth Last? by parasubvert on Tuesday September 15, 2015 @10:55AM (#10220979)
I agree with some of your points: it was a little unfair, and Stalin and Mao certainly had great hubris. I tend to view libertarianism as the next desired grand social experiment: the Marxism of the Right. This leaks out via dry attempts at humor. Perhaps it won't be a disaster; I also admit I should be more respectful in a debating forum.

As for Hayek, I don't think he is unique in the view that price is about knowledge. While Hayek was the more readable and reasonable one between him and Von Mises, I'm aware the Austrians don't really believe one can scientifically study the economy, but I also think there is plenty of evidence that has refuted this: we can quantify and describe a large subset of the economy with predictive power.

Re:Can Economic Growth Last? by HiYaBarbie on Monday September 14, 2015 @11:00AM (#10215373)
Perhaps more clearly, GDP doesn't distinguish between productive and unproductive activity.

The government could pay people to dig ditches and fill them back in, and that would contribute to the GDP even though it was a complete waste of effort and a net negative considering the opportunity costs.