"92% of startups fail. For most, it's not going to turn out pretty."

And if you're a founder you have those same odds, no? With more skin in the game, being a founder in those cases is probably even worse, too.

I think all I'm suggesting is in the risk-reward decision, it's more complex and subtle than just go be a founder if you're going to do the startup thing as that's the _only_ way it's worth it.

"Apparently your friends are incredibly good at choosing startups; they should be VCs."

Some of them are; however, some are relatively happy going from startup to startup (fairly early) getting things done. I'm sure some of those will hit well and others won't.

I don't think it is the same odds. The number of startups in which employee 500 gets rich is vanishingly small. The number in which employee 3 gets rich is higher. On the other hand, you'd need 500/3 such startups to counter the first kind. I don't know what the actual numbers are.

I'm sorry. I didn't mean to imply employee 500. Employee #10, for example or even employee #50 could still do substantially well (similar to what you allude to in saying "the number in which employee 3 gets rich is higher")

Out of curiosity, 92% of startups that reach what stage? Seed funding, series A, series B, etc.?

edit:

It's companies that are picked by YC