Re:China Sells U.S. Treasuries to Support Yuan
by dekhn on Thursday August 27, 2015 @11:31AM
(#10130021)
Whether agents act rationally is an open question in the economic literature. I claim most investors are irrational, but that the market appears to have an emergent behavior that makes it appear rational. Truly explaining this sort of emergent behavior in a feedback and partial information and game-player system with a trivial narrative about whether agents are rational seems to deny the inherent complexity of the system.
Stocks aren't traded on some fundamental objective functions of accounting value and projected profits, they're traded purely on what people believe that other other people will be paying for the stock five milliseconds / five minutes / five days / five years from now. All at once, in a recursive mess. The professed theory is that some kind of objective truth underlies all this, and eventually generates some theory of value that all the speculators can latch on to - but that sort of investing is a tiny fraction of trading volume.