Maybe this doesn't matter, but how did you leave out the long history of market crashes prior to 1929 [1], and how did you leave out the S&L crisis [2]? That is some really selective reading of history.

> a crash could only come about from a set of new circumstances we couldn't have predicted before (or else it wouldn't have crashed)

This claim isn't actually correct. Economic history is full of crashes and recessions where nothing new happened.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_recessions_in_the_Unit... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_stock_market_crashes_a...

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Savings_and_loan_crisis