You may very well be right that the relatively small group of people who like to do creative things in their free time would make a big impact, though.
- Enormous stigma
- Being a powerless pawn of Kafkaesque bureaucracy
- Poor nutrition, distracting hunger, nagging uncured illness
- Pressure, stress, fear and suffering
- Low access to anything not in walking distance, or which costs money to get in
- Easy access to distracting pop culture and particularly TV
It's basically unsurprising that a person here and now who's unemployed DOESN'T behave like a person in a society that distributes Basic Income without stigma.
If you want to look at a group which might make a better comparison, look at retirees, or lottery winners.
Dropping back to ages 65-74 is mostly similar, except they only read half as much.
Also, many types of work are just not possible outside of a company context because you need infrastructure and, well, company. Some people may be willing to do a bit of today's work for free, just for socializing, if they have basic income and if it's socially acceptable to work without pay. Or maybe not. But it's hard to know, from just looking at this data.
If I have a basic income, I would love to go out and do something productive, take classes to benefit myself to get a better job. I have a few family members who doesn't have a job for a few years and they cannot take any free classes, they all cost money, especially the intensive technical courses.
I would love to go to the arts and stuff but the moment I step out as an unemployed person with no income, it will only incur expenses I can't afford. Rent, Bus fares, food, clothing and so on are vital expenses that I need to save for, I can't do that with no income. I've met people who can barely make any profit after paying their expenses.
The benefits of BI can be summarized in that it eliminates the foundation of the hierarchy of needs from everyday considerations. Even minimum wage can't aspire to solve this (simply because at some point minimum wage becomes so high the jobs become unprofitable if they can be avoided -- also because minimum wage does nothing for those who don't collect a wage).
Whilst there are plenty of people who wonder how they'd fill their day if they didn't have computers to program or interesting research to complete, there are an awful lot of people who work long, tedious and unsocial hours simply to make ends meet. Any feasible value of BI is going to be set at much closer to the current incomes of the latter group of people than the former. Even if the first group is vastly larger than the second group, they're still going to have to pay significantly more for the drudgery to be done.
On the other hand, any feasible BI program couldn't pay anything close to the annuity possible by winning a lottery, so a lot of Danes should still be 'stuck' trying to make their desired income level.
I agree we may be able to count on the Scandinavian mindset to make social programs work that couldn't in a place like the United States, but even in Denmark, I don't think this particular program can deliver the desired benefits without giving out enough money to cause problems.
1. The study does not say that 44% would stop working - they just wouldn't continue working in their current company/occupation, with a portion of them probably moving on to more fulfilling work (as opposed to living a life of pure leisure).
2. The stats refer to winning a lottery, which solves one's all financial problems and desires. Basic income does neither for a majority of people.
If that pressure went away, a lot of automation would arrive very suddenly.
You're thinking of how it will shuffle money around, you aren't considering how it will shuffle opportunity around.