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Re:Court rules drug dog barely more accurate than a coin fli... by mikeash on Friday August 07, 2015 @02:47PM (#10024219)
The numbers indicate that the increased rate is almost entirely within the human's judgment, though. If we assume that none of the cars where the dog didn't alert also didn't contain drugs, then that means that the dog was responsible for an increase from 55% to 59%. It's worse if the dog missed some cars in the 7%.

Now, what's the actual base rate? What proportion of cars on the road contain drugs? I'd wager it's well under 10%. Even if we say it's 10%, that means that the humans are taking the rate from 10% to 55%, and then the dog goes from 55% to 59%.

In other words, the dog is basically useless, except as a tool to make the searches legal. If not for the legal requirement, one could just as easily say that "between the human judgment to bring in the magic 8 ball, and the magic 8 ball itself, the police are able to find drugs at probabilities that are multiples of the base rate."

Apparently police are really good at figuring out whether cars contain drugs, but the law doesn't allow them to act on this directly. And apparently dogs are nearly useless at figuring out whether cars contain drugs, but the law allows their nearly useless indication to be used as the basis for action. This is rather backwards!

Re:Court rules drug dog barely more accurate than a coin fli... by harryh on Friday August 07, 2015 @03:00PM (#10024296)
Very well said, especially the last paragraph.

One wonders if we have the procedures we do because it gives a thin veneer of scientific respectability over a system that might otherwise appear biased, racist & otherwise distasteful even if it's statistically valuable.

Re:Court rules drug dog barely more accurate than a coin fli... by mikeash on Friday August 07, 2015 @03:03PM (#10024317)
It might even go further. I could see where a system that allows officers to search based only on their own suspicion to actually be biased, racist, and distasteful, while one where they have to call in the dog, and where they believe the dog actually gets results, might be much more evenhanded.

There does seem to be a lot of "this is 'scientific' so it's good" in law enforcement. A lot of forensic techniques are just BS, but are accepted because they're "scientific." Or look at the recent article posted to HN about how polygraphs are nonsense.

Re:Court rules drug dog barely more accurate than a coin fli... by harryh on Friday August 07, 2015 @03:06PM (#10024342)
Indeed. One is forced to wonder what the solution is to this particular problem. I do not have a good answer.
Re:Court rules drug dog barely more accurate than a coin fli... by mikeash on Friday August 07, 2015 @03:18PM (#10024417)
It's hard for me to come up with an answer, because I want to just say, "Don't search them at all, the War on Drugs is stupid anyway."

Of course, it's the job of the police and the courts to come up with an answer, so we should be able to let them do it. But it seems they can't be trusted to reason about it well.

Re:Court rules drug dog barely more accurate than a coin fli... by harryh on Friday August 07, 2015 @03:28PM (#10024473)
Well sure but that doesn't really get to the core of the problem because I could just as easily substitute "guns" for "drugs" and all the issues will stay much the same (unless you're also a 2nd amendment purist in which case I might have to struggle to come up with another example.)
Re:Court rules drug dog barely more accurate than a coin fli... by mikeash on Friday August 07, 2015 @03:51PM (#10024601)
Yep, but by then I'm working pretty hard on imagining the alternative scenario and trying to ignore the actual drugs-related scenario and I can't trust myself to think straight about it anymore.
Re:Court rules drug dog barely more accurate than a coin fli... by harryh on Friday August 07, 2015 @04:03PM (#10024660)
A man that admits his biases! I like it!
Re:Court rules drug dog barely more accurate than a coin fli... by tertius on Friday August 07, 2015 @04:15PM (#10024725)
Except that they would still only deploy the dogs on cars that meet their bias.
Re:Court rules drug dog barely more accurate than a coin fli... by mikeash on Friday August 07, 2015 @04:45PM (#10024914)
Right, but your biases still get filtered through your thought processes.

If all you need is your own suspicion, it could be easy to let one's bias against purple people run rampant, and search every purple person's car and nobody else's.

If you have to call in a dog which you believe to be effective (even if it may not be) then you may only go to that trouble when you actually have some legitimate suspicion, rather than just going based off your anti-purple racism.