Re:Court rules drug dog barely more accurate than a coin fli...
by harryh on Friday August 07, 2015 @01:59PM
(#10023910)
Indeed, I agree with your assessment of the statistical reasoning ability of the general public.
I think that articles like this one, if they were better, could move things (even if just a little bit) in a positive direction by educating the public. Unfortunately when they are as poorly written as this I think they do the exact opposite. Oh well.
That becomes scary when you're talking to a doctor about a test that returned a positive result. Does that doctor know how likely it is you actually have what you tested positive for? Are you going to get treatment for this thing?
Gerd Gigerenzer has a nice book about this: http://www.amazon.com/Reckoning-Risk-Learning-Live-Uncertain...
Here's one example about breast cancer testing: http://imgur.com/zO4zkl4