teamweightloss

It is true that on paper, American importers pay the tariffs. However, both the Chinese exporters and American importers will not divulge openly the fact that Chinese exporters have had to reduce their margin significantly since it would not be in their best interests. But the truth is the margins for Chinese exporters have collapsed - there was a Chinese industrial profit drop of 10% in may and 5% in June. Right now the total tariffs on Chinese goods is 55%, and American importers have choosen to either find new suppliers in other countries, or stay and split the increased tariffs with their supplier.

And there's no reason to cry for these American importers - they have chosen to continue to exploit laborers in China working in slave like condition, and support Chinese government. People might not realize that recently China has told EU they will not let Russia lose in the Ukraine war https://www.cnn.com/2025/07/04/europe/china-ukraine-eu-war-i...

As for debt, the recent bill has added $3.4 trillion over the next decade, around $300 billion per year. however, US will take in $500 billion a year in newly added tariffs.

Trump 2016 was taken less seriously by multinationals, as the anti-globalization wave hasn't fully realized, and corporation were paying lip service to Trump, which the 2016 administration had no choice but to accept it due to only having power in the executive branch.

Trump 2024 is a completely different animal, with control in all 3 branches of government, plus overwhelming voter support in the election. As well as the collapse of globalization (baby boomer retiring reducing demand), and many countries moving to the right at the same time. Reshoring is the correct choice for the next 10 years and beyond, and many multinationals recognize this and have committed hundreds of billions accordingly.

China is very powerless right now to have any influence on Apple: Apple has dropped 5th place in China with a market share of 13% in Q1 2025. This is the result of China's current economy in Great Depression and unable to afford luxury goods - comparable to other luxury market collapse such as clothes and cars in China. Also US is attacking China's economy heads on with tariffs, as well as China's cooperators such as Russia, Brazil and India, rendering China so unable to deal with pressures from multiple fronts that it is literally frozen with fear.

Some of the more recent numbers for the bigger bubble countries

- US June deficit narrowed 16% to 60 billion. deficit with China dropped 30% to 9.5 billion, lowest deficit in 21 years, since February 2004. Now US expects 50 billion per month in tariffs revenue.

- China's trade surplus in June rose to 683 billion, exports to the United States sank nearly 22% year-on-year, exports to Africa and Southeast Asia surged at double-digit rates as Chinese businesses diverted sales to other markets. Chinese industrial profits however, plunged 10% in may 2025.

Europe is not going to trade more with China, if anything, they want to trade less with China, if you look at the recent events.

- Europe signing trade deal with US

- China: We can’t afford for Russia to lose Ukraine war https://www.yahoo.com/news/russia-cannot-lose-war-ukraine-09.... In other words, China is attacking Europe via Russia.

- China is in a great depression. Their only economic engine is export, and Europe is steadily putting up tariff walls.

US just put tariffs on every other country in the world, and nothing really happened. Thus, US is strong, not weak. dollar is weaker, US is not.

>Dalio analysis agrees that today China power is rising and the USA is weakening

Ray Dalio knows nothing. US just put tariffs on every other country in the world. And threatened China with 145% tariffs to get them to come to the table and open up Chinese market even more, even though China is in its own Great Depression right now.

In China in the year 2025, cooking pre-cooked package in a microwave in a restaurant is now an industry norm. ex.1: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oh2_Fj5-m7c. ex.2: https://www.youtube.com/shorts/Tp-DfNqDXuo. implications of this are:

1.) customers who don't know about the practice, now expect food right away for very cheap price, which bankrupts traditional restaurants that cook from fresh ingredients. An analogy could be off the shelf software or custom software losing sales to vibe coded software

2.) customers who do know about the practice, stops ordering food altogether, due to food issues (prepared ingredients are very low quality, oil could be very dirty) or they could cook prepared food at home in their own microwave for even cheaper. An analogy is programmers coding their own software using vibe coding.

3.) declining quality of food, and less and less people eating out in China. It's gotten so bad that now hotel restaurants, which would be the fine dining options, are setting up food stalls in the street to sell cheap but freshly cooked food, in order to get people into the hotel restaurants. An analogy might be softwares with per seat pricing changing to action based pricing for an initial period.