tazoptica

1. Use Mathematica.

2. Draw the rest of the butt.

No, but I think my forecast stands. They will do something petty and it will end up helping him.

Read a lot and write a lot but also edit your own work a lot, putting intervals between editing passes. There is no shortcut. A million words and you’ll be publishable. Three or for million and you might start to approach good. A third party editor might help but could also hurt and isn’t worth it unless the project requires it. Beyond what grammarly can do, labelled data is going to be in short supply— it’s mostly an unsupervised problem. Your most important editor will be you.

It’s unpredictable what the future looks like but I agree there is something new in AI’s revealed capabilities.

This could “frontfire” (that is, backfire against bad actors). The web has been flooded with corporate sock puppetry for a decade, drowning out legitimate content. What ChatGPT is scaring people about has been within an epsilon dollar amount of being true for a long time.

I think they’re going to blow their wad trying to take down a currently obscure debut novelist. They won’t do anything stupidly illegal because he isn’t actually that important to them, but the minor scandal will expose a few threads that the world will pull upon…

Y Combinator might not actually “go SBF” till mid year 2024 but they will start in 23… and out of sheer pettiness.

1. Backlash against AI, due to a collapse of the market for commodity-grade graphic design and copywriting, begins but is not very effective.

2. Google stock tumbles (LLMs) and Meta continues to spiral. Layoffs accelerate. This leads to a proliferation of high-quality startup concepts but the vast majority are unable to close funding and therefore go nowhere.

3. Iran faces a brutal internal rebellion that entangles the region. Israel and the new Iran become allies, but no one knows what this means yet.

4. Michael O. Church’s novel (Farisa’s Crossing) is released. YC’s attempts to disparage the author backfire and end up publicising it, causing it to win awards in 2024.

5. Vladimir Putin faces internal rebellion and possibly a coup. He may die, of his (probable) bowel cancer if nothing else.

6. The right wing politics and domestic violence issues of a small number of Silicon Valley darlings, though too few and anecdotal to prove a trend, get enough public exposure to cause widespread hatred for what’s left of the tech industry. Wall Streeters and politicians are held to have relative moral authority, so expect lots of regulations. Some will be necessary and some will be laughably dumb.

7. Cryptocurrency collapse. Bitcoin falls to the two digits. Bank CEOs are fired for having gotten involved. The impoverishment of the Millennial generation is worsened by the crash of the one opportunity they had, so generational rancor increases.

8. Donald Trump, facing criminal charges and extreme unpopularity, attempts (but unsuccessfully this time) to foment violence as he did on 1/6/21. This finally leads the GOP to drop him, but his replacement may be worse.

9. Springtime food security issues in Europe, though extremely mild by world standards, cause at least one or two countries to turn politically radical (direction unpredictable). By December, neoliberalism is declared dead by (historically neoliberal) mainstream press outlets.

10. People continue to fail the Turing test (LLMs). The web is 50% bots by end of year.

11. Amazon inherits the decade. Google can’t recover from LLMs and Meta can’t recover from Meta and Apple takes a hit as right to repair laws are passed in Europe and North America.

12. The sudden collapses and turn offs of 2010s walled garden websites cause link rot sufficient to make large swathes of the web unusable.