sudo_gopnik
This supply crunch is such a fraud - I was on a call with a analyst group covering the memory market and they described the current situation in hilariously depressing corpo speak:
"Pricing dynamics are reflective of coordinated production discipline amongst major suppliers."
I had to give them props, that is one of the most creative ways to describe the pricing fixing cartels.
I think the other thing not mentioned here is that Austin saw a huge influx of home buyers in 2020-2024 - most everyone I met during that time that moved from West Coast bought at the high and left within 2-3 years after realizing they couldn't handle the crumbling infrastructure and hot summers. Many of them have been holding onto these properties and trying to rent. This only put more pressure on another group - those who bought properties specifically for short-term rentals (e.g. Airbnb). Those who did stay are see massive headcount reductions in tech industry. Meanwhile there are many natives who would love to live closer but are stuck with properties purchased in '21-'24 in Round Rock, Georgetown, San Marcos, Taylor, etc.
So IMO this a perfect storm of not just building housing supply (which is great - the best thing the city has managed to do in the past 15 years), but also significant demand correction.
As someone born and raised in Austin and a homeowner within the city - I am ecstatic about decline in rents and home values. Austin became what it is in part because it was affordable.
We have no nearby mountains, hot summers, poor infrastructure, poor politics, a heavily polluted coastline --> there was no reason for it's prices to be as high as they were.
"For the pre-Fed period (1790-1913), the average annual inflation was 0.4 percent with a coefficient of variation of 13.2. During the period 1941-2016, these figures changed to 3.5 percent and 0.8, respectively. If we look at the post-Volcker era (1988-2016), annual inflation was 2.2 percent on average with a coefficient of variation of 0.4." -
Source: https://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/regional-economist/s...
Also recommend Debt: The First 5000 Years (David Graeber) and Capital in the Twenty-First Century (Thomas Piketty) which cover this and more on how current concepts of finance and capital post-1914 are incredibly different from the majority of human civilization.
I think a broader historical/anthropological approach is helpful here to understand why those tradeoffs were made.
Unfortunately I think most people will look no further than the headline and think the current administration is correct in their strong attack on federal institutions like the federal DOE, when this was a fraud perpetuated at the state level and caught only by federal oversight (FBI, Postal Service, IRS Criminal Division).