storus

Do you need to know the full conditional probability distributions of the model to tell if it's a watermarked text, or does this work without that knowledge, i.e. without having the access to the full weights?

Another wave of inflation is coming in the next 6 months or what?

The advantage of running local stack is that you can do the compaction at the time of inference, i.e. some tool call runs out of context, you can just pause inference, purge/replace old tool calls with their summaries or just logs by operating directly over tokens on a GPU, rebuilding KV cache (one time prefill hit) and resuming the inference, easily being able to e.g. read 1000 markdowns, each 50k long, in a single LLM call. That's not possible with current agentic harnesses using LLM calls.

My main gripe is with Claude deciding to make 200 lines of code in a PR I need to review, instead of 3 lines of code somebody who understands the original algorithm/intent would do. And coworkers just YOLOing changes without understanding them. Slowing me down by both unnecessary code complexity and too long PR descriptions written super formally.

Yeah, but you can bet on almost anything and have a proxy fight with people of a different opinion to you, and the winner gets the money of their opponents. So it's a "kinda battleground" in that sense.

Some folks do fundamental analysis, some do technical analysis, most do a mix of those. You don't need Bloomberg terminal to extract fundamentals nor alpha. Maybe a better example would be S&P Capital IQ - you can essentially replace it with agents doing the web searches and extractions for you. Another 20-50k saved.

I mean the whole eclipse was shortly before the sunset and shortly after the sunset you could see 6 planets nearby. That's quite unique, don't you think?

Wow, that's even faster than diffusion LLMs but with the Fable-level quality! Congrats!

Can't you just use a bunch of agents to extract financial statements from company websites the moment they are published? OK, no insider info but you can still do quick agentic fundamental analysis and decide which companies are interesting.

Isn't Polymarket essentially an instance of a battleground for anything?

Did your dad immigate from a country where nepotism/cronyism was the norm? Wasn't America unique in the ability to give this frugal person a chance to pull himself up by the bootstraps by giving him and his children the opportunity to earn a good living without knowing anyone in power? Do you want America that would look like your dad's original country, being a permanent underclass there?

Pointing out that cronyism/nepotism is giving the largest boost for one's success instead of "meritocracy" is pretty depressing...

Don't forget 6-planet alignment.

The main camera on YouTube from Leon, Spain, completely missed corona...

Probably nothing Earth-shattering in benchmarks? Flash can already replace Opus 4.5 for local agentic coding, maybe they didn't have a similar win for Pro?

Soon the whole US academia reputation will go down the drain and the degrees we all worked so hard for will have no meaning. How to shoot oneself in the foot 101.

10 years ago one could buy "spyglasses" on eBay with camera in the middle hidden behind a polarizing filter, looking like regular glasses. This Meta stuff feels like a bad copy of the same.

Writing meaningful and correct code was always difficult. That we know how to generate pointless CRUD or half-baked apps using agents doesn't mean we can do them well. It's probably sufficient for selling them as a business but far from being great.

Is there any cheap way to run personal websites without getting cooked by bots these days, degrading the performance? A $5/month VPS won't cut it anymore.

Many of those require a paradigm shift in our understanding of Universe, so I am not sure they are achievable with any convex combination of existing knowledge. We'd need some sharp mind connecting the dots but with heavy use of AI and incentives to use it, we might just never give a chance for such mind to arise.

2x DGX Spark runs DeepSeek V4 Flash 0731 quite well and I already reimplemented a few classical games with it in a few hours in OpenCode with minimal hand-holding. I am expecting the inference price to collapse over time and not increase, at least for models that are able to do like 95-99% of work quickly and only the most problematic parts requiring something better.

I am wondering when will harnesses generate their own RLHF/DPO training sets and just LoRA finetune the models they are running?

Reference-to-video mode seems like all that was missing to enable completely independent cinematography as right now one couldn't stitch different scenes together properly without altering substantial portions of the scene.

I think the window for a ban of open weight models is closing fast so let's hope US administration is going to miss it and we get Fable-level models (at least in some aspects) with open weights without infringing any newly introduced law as a long-term local baseline.

As long as economics incentivizes next quarter thinking nothing will be done. We can't even handle human portion of global warming which is arguably more important than just some AI model collapse scenario.

There is probably some correlation between one's profession and fetishes. We already know some programming languages attract certain types of personalities/attitudes so why would that be different elsewhere?

Sideloading also means installing an app you don't want to publish on any marketplace (for your own or family/friends use). Is there a better word for it?

This is nice, but Apple essentially blocks sideloading (outside test flight environment) and Google is moving there as well. While it has never been easier to produce individualized software, it was never more difficult on the official platforms, unless one wants to create their own OS (at some point that might be possible as well).

AI = cognitive automation?

Only theory that is a convex combination of existing theory. Any paradigm shift is currently unreachable to LLMs and can be only obtained by luck with RL due to the curse of dimensionality.