sophistication

AI is likely simple and won't require much processing power after all, so it will be impossible to ban it because it would imply more regulation and surveillance than what would be sustainable. Also global warming will likely kill us anyhow. The rational conclusion is to enjoy our supermarkets and warm showers as long as they last. They will probably last longer if we deny these threats so as to avoid causing mass panic and nihilism.

Were "dot-com" companies listed on the NASDAQ back then, or only companies with significant dot-com investments?

Related question: Is the AI bubble smaller or larger than the dot-com bubble?

https://i.imgur.com/q7whaio.png

Not agreeing with OP, but citing single studies is often pretty misleading. It is better to look for meta studies because the outcomes typically vary considerably, so you cannot be sure a single study is reliable.

Here are two meta studies based on 20 and 140 other studies, respectively, and they only find a weak to no link between gender diversity and productivity, so neither does the science prove that gender diversity is particular beneficial, nor that it is harmful:

https://journals.aom.org/doi/abs/10.5465/amj.2013.0319

https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal...

I just think it's a futile kind of paranoia. Your anomalous behavior puts you on some list. Writing about it here puts you on some list. As every admin knows so well, spying on user data is much too easy for that not being done all over. We'd need to tear down large scale digital infrastructure to make even a dent into the problem of massive abuse potential. Deleting cookies is cope.

… all of which is futile as long as NSA records everything and their databases will leak one day.

That does sound neat. Sounds like it could be combined with 3D localization to allow eavesdropping particular sounds sources even e.g. in large rooms with lots of people talking. Multipath/ghosting might make precise localization difficult though.

From the point of AI safety, slow progress seems to be beneficial.

How does multi microphone filtering work? I guess they localize different sound sources by cross-correlation (to get the timings) and triangulation (based on the timings and the speed of sound)?

This sounds like standard procedures for sampling from a Markov random field.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Markov_random_field

The method in the first paper is in production, AFAIK. Also, outdated ≠ obsolete.

2010 is pre-deep learning revolution/hype, so these slides are outdated. See e.g. https://arxiv.org/abs/1709.01907 https://arxiv.org/abs/1810.01403

It looks like one can accelerate filters using WebGL shaders: http://evanw.github.io/webgl-filter/

I think Photoshop also operates on a reduced image for previewing the outputs of filters and other tools. Compared to Photoshop, Photopea is a bit laggy with large images on my 8 year old machine, just like GIMP.

The processes are also designed such that people do not feel overstepped and ignored. After all, most things in life are about social status, or more immediately about salary status and job position.

If someone secretly implements an awesome feature, others might be envious as it does not seem deserved if their idea did not receive the same level of scrutiny by the usual processes as other decisions did.

Theoretically, it probably won't cause much chaos at all if programmers are allowed to add small GUI tweaks and the product likely benefits from it.

The degree to which this would work probably depends a lot on the extent to which the programmers have reached Kegan level 5, so practically it probably won't work all that well.

http://i.imgur.com/K4AVFbW.png

Notably he was also answering other questions in the AMA, so it possibly only took him 2 minutes. It is not a difficult feature to implement anyhow, it probably went like this:

    vim tools/Text.js
    self.addEventListener('click', function (e) {
      if (e.detail === 3) {
        self.selectAll();
      }
    });
    :wq
    git add tools/Text.js
    git commit -m "Add triple click select all"
    git push origin master
    Done.

Why do you regret buying it?

There are good reasons to assume that tariffs are not enough. From the episode I've listened to it seems they are hypergamy deniers.

> whatever that means

I mean that he is a rare kind of public figure who is really down-to-earth, yet proponent of the free market & innovation. Like Trump he breaks with the norms, but he's a lot more sincere. He also does not seem to outsource overseas very much, which kind of fits into the MAGA narrative.

I'm not losing optimism because of this. Musk fits right into the current political & cultural trajectory and the Tesla brand is sleek & timeless. The media is framing Musk's flaws (Twitter insults, weed & booze) as a bad thing, but outside of the media, people do not care about such things nearly as much. It just requires a few years of optimization and the cars are going to be en par with established brands.

> We need a world where none of us need secrets

… which is impossible? This would require that the government never gets corrupt because you need secrets to get rid of a corrupt government.

Ok, I'm an idiot. It's likely women who are less likely lonely. N is small though.

Exploring datasets from http://next.nomics.world, I'm finding no link between gender equality and population density adjusted loneliness. But, removing outliers with excessive loneliness for their population densities (MT, CZ), I'm getting a moderate correlation (.4) between gender inequality index and male loneliness (male to female loneliness ratio among 24 to 34 year olds), so my model might explain male loneliness in particular. Haven't looked into the other factors I've conjectured.

Indeed. Studies are only finding moderate correlations of loneliness and technology use.

The variables with the largest regression coefficients predicting loneliness in this study [0], were poor neighborhood safety (.61), being single (.47, even with children .50). Being married most strongly protected against loneliness (−.42).

I'd bet modern day loneliness is mostly caused by an interplay globalization/automation, stagnating growth and gender equality. All of them diminish the need for all kinds of social interactions in a big way. With improving welfare and increasing economic independence, women less likely need to find a reliable partner. Careerism forces them to marry late (or not at all) and makes men less appealing to them. Simultaneously, globalization and automation are destroying local economic opportunities, thereby lowering the social value of men even more. Deteriorating economic prospects lead to more crime, decreased neighborhood safety…

[0] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2394670/

A bit late, but more on this:

https://pocketmags.com/au/skeptical-inquirer-magazine/may-ju...

Yes, I predominately mean psychotherapy. The links I've listed mostly just provide hints of excessive psychologizing and quackery, but it is indeed awkward when >90% of psychotherapy methods do not perform better than placebo. There seems to be quackery in the medical side of psychiatry as well, but to a lesser extent.

Here it is straight from the horse's mouth:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f0Fi32LbXHA

An angle that appears to be underexplored, is what happens if you let males compete for sustainability. We might be underestimating the effect of classical (or perhaps even biological) provider roles of males, i.e. the amassment of resources to attract a mate. If we could transform this in competition in sustainability, then it might make a huge difference. Current approaches to sustainability might exactly fail because they do not take such possibly hardwired mechanisms account. E.g. a male who foregoes meat and excessive life style appears to have it harder [0], not easier in his romantic life.

[0]: http://psycnet.apa.org/record/2017-26154-001

It looks like psychiatry, especially psychotherapy, is bullshit to a far greater extent than what was discussed in this blog post:

---

For real patients, there is no evidence that the benefits of psychotherapy are greater than those of placebo treatment.

https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/behavioral-and-brain... (Prioleau 1983)

Meta-analysis shows antidepressants to be more effective than psychotherapy. No significant difference between the studies with and those without a placebo condition.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26169475 (Cuijpers 2015)

Negative results in phase III trials of complex interventions

https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/the-british-journal-... (Crawford 2016)

Therapy experience in naturalistic observational studies is associated with negative changes in personality

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S009265661... (Philip 2016)

Does psychotherapy work? An umbrella review of meta‐analyses of randomized controlled trials finds only 7% of studies provided convincing evidence that psychotherapy is effective. These pertained to cognitive behavioural therapy (n = 6), meditation therapy (n = 1), cognitive remediation (n = 1), counselling (n = 1) and mixed types of psychotherapies (n = 7).

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/acps.12713?c...

More experience and training do not improve outcome of psychotherapy.

http://psycnet.apa.org/record/2017-46640-006 (Erekson 2017)

Trauma and victimhood have also been way overstated, overlooking that most people recover from traumatic experiences; that duration and and frequency of trauma are uncorrelated with subsequent disorder.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S027273581... (Küenzlen 2016)

Young children emerge from single potentially traumatic events psychologically unharmed

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/17405629.2016.11... (Galatzer-Levy 2018)

People with moderate life adversity have the fewest stress symptoms, are the most satisfied with life and the least affected by recent traumata.

https://econtent.hogrefe.com/doi/abs/10.1027/2512-8442/a0000... (Höltge 2018)

How to spot hype in the field of psychotherapy: A 19-item checklist

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1RXZ75sEnpTpqExb_KP0buaL6V2y...

It does not matter here whether it is correlation because whatever the pollution study is referring to, it will likely involve the same correlation.

According to this study, one year of education translates to 1 to 5 IQ points:

https://psyarxiv.com/kymhp/

I think this paper is one of the most interesting results in this regard:

> Money and Happiness: Rank of Income, Not Income, Affects Life Satisfaction

> https://www.jstor.org/stable/41062232

Of course, the relation is not perfect because there are probably more than half a dozen other major things that can go wrong; most prominently disease, relationship and work situation.

I could imagine that dissatisfaction due to disease also largely comes from comparison with others. If everybody is healthier, then more minor diseases have a stronger negative effect on life satisfaction; so not much is gained.

Work satisfaction might have improved, but the hedonic treadmill probably also diminishes the returns in that case.

I could imagine that relationship satisfaction has decreased with the loss of the classical gender roles and culture regulating all of that. E.g. it is known that premarital promiscuity results in decreased marriage satisfaction:

http://nationalmarriageproject.org/wordpress/wp-content/uplo...