sjsharkie

That would be a very bearish take on Bitcoin, since any investment that is only speculative has an eventual future price of $0

You don't need to convince miners at all. If BTCs future is in using it, it has to convince the future companies and stores to not use other coins or services. Or to a buyer today to still have as much demand even after the speculation is gone (which is currently its main/only function).

Wallets, miners, etc won't really matter at all if Square and Amazon etc have a plugin that uses a stable coin of each currency along with BTC. The world will have infinite transfer capabilities of other "scarce" non-fiat and fiat pegged coins without BTC (including other electronic currency based services).

But BTC will never be the best or only way to do that, so once it actually is priced to a real function (transfer capability) it won't be scarce or unique. You can print an infinite amount of alternative coins or stable coins (or even other services without crypto at all) to do transfers including intl transfers.

"BTC will always go up as demand for it will always go up" is nicely self reinforcing as long as it is believed by enough to be true, but the price can go to $1 without issue once it is not.

But since it seems quite likely to at least 3x or 10x or who knows before that sad end occurs, I'm not exactly recommending you short it.

It's only scarce when it isn't very useful and the market has little real adoption, as now, where the only real reason 99% of people have it is speculation.

If we actually needed a lot of cross border transfers, you can print an infinite amount of different coins/systems to duplicate that function (this is ignoring BTC actually has more money printing via Tether than any other "currency"). This isn't even including just having new systems for moving electronic US dollars around in Apple wallets etc, and cashing into local currency as needed through other services.

Bitcoins "real" value is a storage of value, which is currently based on speculation desires of holders, which in theory could hold forever (or at least longer than you can remain solvent as a short or long enough for you to 10x or 100x so who cares) but could also disappear forever and not be missed once gone.

The only moat is belief, which really who knows if that is sticky or not. There is no tangible functional moat.