simplyluke
Not today's raspberry pi, but the equivalent of it absolutely. I don't work in it, but have a number of friends who are involved in LLM development - the "breakthrough" optimizations are obvious work in hindsight. We are still in the very early innings of optimizing both hardware and software techniques. The recent market imbalance has blurred the idea that hardware simultaneously gets both cheaper and much better, but no one serious expects that to stop on a longer timeline.
Going beyond the "my watch has more computation power than NASA at the moon landing" - speech-to-text used to be unreliable tech that needed datacenters backing it as recently as the early iphone, and now runs in near-realtime on smartphones that cost about the same. A ~$50 processor running in my closet does realtime person/vehicle/package detection on my front door camera reliably.
Within large tech companies the era of "spend the most money on the smartest model running on its maximum effort, always" is dead.
I think an open question is if SOTA labs should be priced like software companies have been. Software has been so valuable because the marginal cost approaches zero as distribution increases. Profit/employee at a company like meta prior to massive AI spending was measured in the millions. Meanwhile, the balance sheets of the labs look entirely different - remaining competitive requires continuous and astronomic capital costs, and there's no indication that this goes away. They are perennially being chased by competitors offering the same performance as models mere months old at fractions of the cost.
Their business to me, at least long term, looks a lot more like an airline, railroad, or other extremely capital-heavy industry with very competitive and low margins. None of those trade at 6+ p/s. Particularly on the buyer side, the switching cost to me as a high-AI-spending employee if a cheaper model offers compelling performance is less than deciding that I should ditch my preferred business travel airline.
I think that's why you're seeing so many calls from the leaders of those companies to regulate their competition away.
I both agree with this but also find most insistence that Model A is the "best" is social hype divorced from capabilities.
Everyone in silicon valley has a cousin who's supposedly seen Anthropic's new unreleased model that changes everything forever. I distinctly recall sitting in a work meeting where a coworker was insisting GPT4 was AGI that anthropic was too scared to release. It's amazing to me that this playbook is still working at least somewhat on folks.
Anthropic's recent releases are wordy to the point of exhaustion. Every time I use opus recently I find myself wanting to yell "GET TO THE POINT" at a terminal, which is exacerbated by it being slow.
The author leaps from a proposed ban on 15 year olds using tiktok to wholesale bans on smartphones.
No one's proposing banning teenagers from owning smart phones entirely. I would agree that not allowing 17 year old girls going out to have phones on trains would be bad policy, if that was actually a thing anyone was suggesting. It's unclear how any of the teens in the anecdote at the start of the story would be affected by the proposed legislation at all.
> It’s watching precisely why young adults need phones, the agency to use them, and the life skills to make their ways in the world with their phones in their pockets.
The link between creepy old men being called out and documented on a train and whether or not 14 year olds should be spending 8+ hours a day scrolling tiktok is unclear to the point of feeling like I'm missing something in the article. I guess the idea is that teens are being punished? And we should be holding our leaders accountable instead of restricting the teens? The counter argument to this would be "holding our leaders accountable" looks a lot like "passing regulations to keep children from being harmed by digital nicotine"
> Many other people, observing our current policy context, have also called out how smartphone and social media bans for young adults (and we are talking about that particular group here, not toddlers and primary schoolers) risk swaddling them in cotton wool and then releasing them into the world, without critical adulting skills, on the day they hit a magic birthday
This is the same reason I think we should give 13 year olds a couple of cigarettes a week, just enough for them to still feel sick from the nicotine and start to figure out how to integrate into adult society.
We've long accepted that certain activities carry enough harm that people under a certain age lack the development for it to be fair to expect them to engage with it in a healthy manner. Does it deny 14 year olds some agency that we don't allow them to ride motorcycles? Yes. Is it sound policy? I think so. We have plenty of evidence for real harms in teenagers with regards to social media, a fact that took me a long time to accept while I worked in the industry, but is plainly obvious in the data and studies done on it over the past decade.
It's a surprising example of the recency bias to me to assume anything other than the market returning to its historic norm, even if the AI buildout doesn't slow, producers will scale factories to meet that demand.
In general, it's comparable across the board. Claude is less "verbose" -- GLM really likes to comment a ton. There were a few things where I think claude would have needed a little bit less back and forth. So opus still has an edge, but it's marginal, very much unlike previous open/competitor models where benchmarks looked good but actual day to day performance was pretty bad. I'm sure fable is "better" but it's so expensive + data retention policies are such that for the moment it was generally available I couldn't use it for work. This is still notably better performance than when claude code took the industry by storm.
I'm understanding why Dario is trying to regulate open weight models away.
Consider that there are literally trillions of dollars being wagered on this not being the future state of computing. Not even speculating that HN is being astroturfed (though I see no reason it wouldn't be by interested parties), but many of the US tech employees here have direct financial incentives in various forms to be rooting for the failure of open source and optionally local models.
I've been using the full GLM 5.2 model this way (through opencode) at work for the past week. It's quite impressive.
There is not a period in the history of computing where this is true of consumer hardware over a decade for anything other than hardware already at the very bottom of its depreciation curve. It is surprising to me that you state that as an obvious assumption.
I suppose if your base case is Taiwan war that may be true, but there's a lot of folks who seem to be assuming the current hardware crunch will go on indefinitely when the natural state of hardware is getting cheaper over time.
I'm pretty sure prices are going down. Maybe not complete builds in nominal dollars, but $/gb for things like RAM and SSDs will be lower in 5 years than it is today almost certainly.
With many new vehicles on the road with their low beams on coming at me head-on I have no chance of seeing a pedestrian for hundreds of yards because I'm so blinded.
Getting hit by any vehicle over 20mph is going to be a very bad time, it is going to be somewhat worse if it's a large vehicle with a high bumper.
Americans are twice as likely to think it's fine to use a cell phone while driving than Canadians or Europeans, and while illegal in most places it's effectively unenforced - our cops spend half their shifts driving around messing around on a mounted laptop. If you want to improve outcomes, start holding American drivers to the standards that peer nations do.