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I'am an ex ChaosGroup employee and I can tell you that if there's one thing I learned while working there, it's that all these constraints are in your mind. You can find talent here. You can create a product here and sell it worldwide and be successful. You can be competetive or better than your western competition. In some ways, doing this is even easier than in the west. My view is that in order to be greatly successful, you need 3 things, no matter in what part of the world you happen to be:

1. Great idea.

2. Great timing.

3. Lots of work.

(besides the companies you listed, I could also mention coherent-labs.com, which are also global leaders in their market).

Even if you ignore volumetrics and splines, a production renderer still needs tons of features. Gradually adding those increases overall system complexity exponentially as of course new features should not break old ones, and need to be backward compatible (scene format wise) as well. Consider f.e. different sampling types for indoors/outdoors/material wise, handling millions of triangles with limited RAM, subdivision surfaces and sub-surface scattering, many many types of materials your users expect you to support (and precompiled combinations there of), speed expectations etc. That's really just scratching the surface about what's in a production renderer. As they say, the devil is in the details :). Of course if you render two spheres on a plane, yeah you can write a tracer for that in 10 minutes and even compete with others.

Trust me, it's not _that_ simple :). (I'm working @ ChaosGroup on vray).

My browser (chrome) freezed-up for a few seconds. Seriously.