pappn

I think 100 households per MW in milder climates is very conservative.

Anectdata: I have a ~150 square meter, 50 year old house heated by electricity and heat pump. I live I Norway, and where I live winter temperatures usually don't get lower than -12C. I have 2 EVs that are driven around 50k km a year combined, charged at home every night, simultaneously.

I peak out below 15kW (1h average). That number is deliberate since I get a higher tariff if I go above 15kW. I have some minor smart house installations that most significantly cuts power to my hot water heater if I get close to 15kW, but even without that I would rarely get above 15kW, and never above 20kW.

Average power this January was 4.75kW, December was 4.96kW, August was 2.25kW.

(Edited for typo)

FYI, air-to-air heat pumps are very popular in Norway. There are models that have >2 COP in -15 C, for instance Toshiba Daiseikai 9S at 2.35 at -15C, and >5 at +7C.

Note that the impressing 9x% efficiency rates that we hear about are peak efficiency rates. There is something to gain in widening the operating ranges of this efficiency also. See for instance https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Efficiency-maps-of-sever...