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overdrivetg

Re:Monkey MindPong on Friday April 09, 2021 @02:25PM (#26754108)
Sounds like you are asking about tech transfer capabilities?

As a starting point, here is a good intro article from WIRED that you might find useful:

https://www.wired.com/brandlab/2017/02/tech-transfer-lab-mai...

Yeah, that also struck me as more of arising from an "antagonistic, competitive" culture vs a collaborative/cooperative one.

And as Facebook shows, "everyone shouting and whoever gets the loudest wins[1]" definitely sucks too. Though I wouldn't be surprised if there were at least some lessons from the creation / history of RRoO that could actually translate.

[1] http://noahpinionblog.blogspot.com/2017/06/the-shouting-clas...

This was a cool AlphaPhoenix video doing a large-scale crystal growth simulation that looks amazingly similar:

https://youtu.be/06TscuHNvGQ?t=305

Re:Why hasn't prefab construction taken over? on Thursday October 15, 2020 @08:16PM (#24795962)
> I presume one would have recourse under contract for such a foul up?

Possibly, but delays in construction are what kill you. You can't really FedEx overnight new structural steel framing components, so now you're blocked until they can get

a. rebuilt, and

b. freighted out to you

Re:Matt Levine makes sense of Wall Street like none other on Friday October 09, 2020 @07:33PM (#24735465)
The name of this index is like clickbait gone awry... Couldn't they have gone for something more like the Perception of Integrity Index since being #1 means "least corrupt"?
Re:The Future of Online Identity Is Decentralized on Monday July 13, 2020 @03:22AM (#23817987)
But again, in practice banks will loan more money more easily to those with a verified identity that has recourse beyond simple "loss of creditworthiness", so those loans will always be more appealing to those who can get them, and so nonrecourse loans never become a thing for normal citizens who can avoid them.

And those who can't get shunted down into the "Payday Loan" tier of finance and they have to dig themselves back out with the equivalent of deposit-backed credit cards.

But few people will choose a deposit-backed card when they have the option of trading identity for better pricing / convenience. If the online ad industry has taught us anything it is that mainstream consumers will trade their data for even the smallest of considerations.

Even if decentralized financial identity would be an improvement (and it is not clear that it would be), a vision with no practical incentive to get there from here is just the basis for another startup destined for whatever is the spiritual successor to f*ckedcompany.com.

sorry for pedantry but you do mean "this will take 20 hours", yes?
Re:Monty Hall Problem on Thursday October 24, 2019 @10:04PM (#21351148)
A fun way to play with people who won't believe you is to say OK then, let's play 10 games @ $10/game:

Get 3 cards and pick one to be the prize. Your mathematically-challenged partner gets to put them down each time.

You pick a card, they remove one of the other cards and then you always switch.

I made like $50 from someone this way one time =)

I'm not totally heartless - I took him to lunch on me afterwards to lessen the blow ;-)

If you really want to drill the point home, offer to keep playing more & more batches of 10 until they've had enough...

Assuming you aren't trying to intentionally throw shade on CA rent control:

Rent SUBSIDIES are a hidden redistribution as you discuss.

Rent CONTROL forces recent transplants to subsidize longtime residents

Ie. gov prevents raising rents to market levels for longtime tenants. They are less likely to move, driving up demand for the remaining housing, which is the only stock available for newer residents.

This then costs newcomers more, while longtime residents avoid paying the market rate on their housing - effectively subsidizing the in-place tenants.

Yeah, annoyingly I used to lightly rest my fingers on the brightness/escape function keys, so now every once in a while I won't pay attention and the screen is now either full blast or off >:-[
Re:Bay Area housing prices drop in tech-heavy counties on Tuesday April 02, 2019 @02:16AM (#19551497)
I'm not sure I know too many 2.3 person households that are in a studio apartment, though. Also above we counted adults vs everyone so the numbers are a bit high for the full household - SF turns out to be more like $1200/household/mo.

Looking again at averages [1], we have average SF rent in 2018 at $3787, so taxes account for roughly 1/3 (32%) of the rent cost.

And let's also compare LA at 2.83 persons/household [2] and $2371 in avg rent [3], so tax per household is $583, or about 25% of rent.

I was just curious to compare that - although you are right that property tax is only $1.7B of SF's $5.5B General Fund revenue [4]. It turns out that most of the rest are Business Taxes and "Other Local Taxes", which look like maybe Transfer Tax is a big piece?

...but if your argument is that SF taxes things other than property tax to raise most of their tax revenue, you are correct, but total business taxes are only $880M, or averaging about $26K/yr.

If you look at an average Starbucks, they're pulling in $880K/yr gross or $200K net [5], so business taxes end up at ~3% of gross, plus SF sales tax of 8.5% means you're paying 11.5% or $0.69 on your $6 cuppa joe.

Expensive, yes - but probably not the major reason rents are high. The rent costs on a 1500sf Starbucks might be as high as $80/sqft/yr = $120,000 - 4.6x the impact that SF business taxes have.

So as far as the numbers go, it looks like supply and demand pushing rental prices up are the primary cost drivers in SF, not any sort of "hidden" SF taxes.

[1] https://www.rentjungle.com/average-rent-in-san-francisco-ren...

[2] https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/losangelescitycalifornia

[3] https://www.rentcafe.com/average-rent-market-trends/us/ca/lo...

[4] https://sfmayor.org/sites/default/files/CSF_Budget_Book_June...

Re:Bay Area housing prices drop in tech-heavy counties on Friday March 29, 2019 @10:29PM (#19527258)
OK, I finally did what I think is the real, updated math:

According to [1] from 2018, "Roughly half of the budget consists of self-supporting activities at the City’s Enterprise departments"

So that leaves $5.5B in General Fund taxes.

According to [2], in 2017 SF had 884,363 residents with 13.4% under 18, so 765,858 adult residents.

$5.5B divided over 765,858 taxpaying adults is $7,181/adult/yr, or just under $600/mo.

You can roll that up into households if you want, but it feels more illustrative to have the number be per taxpaying adult IMO. Having said that, I'll buy your $1,400/household/month number as being basically about right.

I don't disagree with your point about high taxes, but I did want to actually see what the accurate numbers were. Thanks for the interesting discussion.

I'm in LA so I ran the numbers down here for comparison... We turn out to tax at $262/adult/mo, so SF's effective city tax rate is about 2.3x vs Los Angeles.

[1] https://sfmayor.org/sites/default/files/CSF_Budget_Book_June...

[2] https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/sanfranciscocountycaliforn...

Re:Bay Area housing prices drop in tech-heavy counties on Friday March 29, 2019 @02:17PM (#19524153)
Do you have a source for your "SF collects $2800 per month per household in taxes" number?

This Quora answer[1] suggests it's more like $3300/person/yr. The 2010 Census says SF has 345,811 households, or about 2.35 people per household. So $3300 * 2.35 / 12 =~ $650/mo/household in SF.

[1] https://www.quora.com/How-much-does-San-Francisco-make-in-ta...

My brother actually has a company called OnSightEyes.com which uses a smartphone-powered device to measure prescriptions. Their model is to show up at companies and run diagnostics for their employees which are then covered by insurance.

They still need an optometrist on-site, and they have a bunch of sample frames you can try on and order right there, and/or have sets you like sent directly to you to try on later so your partner can weigh in / you can take you time, etc.

Glasses take about a week once ordered and are typically priced such that they're fully covered by insurance. I felt like they were comparable to Warby Parker quality as well.

I was a guinea pig to give them feedback and it was VERY slick - I feel like it took only a few minutes. Way better than the A/B optometrist process and opaque and expensive frame / coatings upsell.

Anyways, apologies for sounding like infomercial - it's just they do a really good job with an upgrade on the kind of device you're talking about so I figured I'd share exactly how it works.

I feel like their main limitation is finding optometrists in new cities who are willing to "try something new" to run diagnosis events - who unsurprisingly tend to be younger doctors less invested in the legacy diagnosis model.

Re:Ask HN: What was your experience using a graph database? on Monday December 31, 2018 @01:29PM (#18796059)
GrapheneDB (Neo4j) on Heroku here - relatively small scale project so far (1000's of users) but very easy to use, no problems, great support. If your problem space is a graph, using a graph will make your life easy once you get over the GraphQL learning curve.

We're on Rails and so use the Neo4j.rb gem which has been around for quite a while and also has a ton of work and support around it. The Ruby DSL for it makes it as easy as you would expect in Rails for most basic relationships and queries, and you can access more advanced features or drop into GraphQL as needed.

For our use case, a graph DB was definitely easier than trying to manage relationships and categories in a relational DB but it will definitely depend on your use case. Good luck!

Re:Japan's Hometown Tax on Friday October 19, 2018 @10:59AM (#18257136)
Wait - are you claiming that New Jersey is somehow bribing New Mexico for policy concessions?

https://www.moneytips.com/is-your-state-a-net-payer-or-a-net...

Re:Japan's Hometown Tax on Friday October 19, 2018 @10:51AM (#18257089)
Do you think some kind of bidding or voting on the maximum donation amounts involved would make sense?

Ie, cities each vote on what they think a "proper" maximum reward would be, then set it at the average.

Relatedly, I'm not sure why a supermajority of cities agreeing to limit gifts would be generally in their best interests:

1. Lower status ("less popular") cities gain more donations via rewards

2. I would guess status/popularity probably follows a power curve

3. Therefore the long tail cities are able to flatten the distribution curve by bidding their way up

4. If they went back to a level playing field, they would drop back down the curve, likely losing the (smaller but nonzero) overall financial boost gained after bidding

Basically: if I am a small city with few "natural" benefactors, I can bid my way up the curve (admittedly depending on the elasticity of "demand") such that I gain more from more donations than I lose in larger rewards.

...unless the market today just drives everyone to offer the maximum reward?

Super interesting though, thank you for sharing this!

But isn't the IRS knocking in a few years better than the IRS knocking THIS year?

IANAL (or a CPA), but it seems like a good-faith attempt to invest in an OZ should not incur penalties later. Disclaimer: you are taking about the IRS, so logic/fairness may not apply.

Also: why would personal investment be against the spirit of the OZ legislation? It seems to focus on getting the property developed, not why it is developed.

Re:Church-Turing Thesis Cannot Possibly Be True [video] on Friday October 19, 2018 @09:48AM (#18256678)
Took me a minute as well - I think he means logical OR (vs logical AND, etc)

ie IF (A OR B) THEN ...

Re:Church-Turing Thesis Cannot Possibly Be True [video] on Friday October 19, 2018 @09:46AM (#18256667)
Well... you can still execute the OR essentially via BFS vs DFS... Spend some "cycles" or steps executing one path, then the other, then keep alternating. Eventually you will hit the termination (if it exists).

Or essentially, you can always simulate parallel algorithms on sequential hardware.

Of course you are correct if the sequential OR is executed naively :-)

...or if you force side-effect free short-circuiting within the sequential OR execution. But then it wouldn't really the same OR (as in the parallel case), now would it?

For some reason I am able to understand single-DA better as:

1. All students are sequentially ranked via lottery

2. You walk down the list, and each student gets their pick of schools with remaining spaces open

Side note, but it also seems IMO that "fairness" could improve if your lottery position is impacted by your past academic performance. Then the better student you have been, the more chance you have of being higher in the lottery order to select a school.

And similar in the debate over which voting system is best, there is also something to be said for preferring that the system being used is easily understandable and feeling fair to the individual, even in the case where it is (slightly) less fair in the aggregate.

Then you have the added bonus of fewer annoyed parents suing you, and only the mathematician parents will complain =)

And then if you also add in the idea of academic performance playing a role, parents can rationalize their situation as having been under their control all along - if their child had performed better, they would have had the ability to choose earlier in the list.

Of course, this is all assuming you believe that grades should convey some preferential status. But if you don't believe that, then why have grades at all?

This is the main blocker for me right now for sure.
Re:The unnecessary demise of Barnes and Noble on Sunday February 18, 2018 @01:35PM (#16407401)
The other stat I think is relevant is that the average car today is 11.5 years old. Or looked at another way, in 11 years, HALF of the cars on the road are the cars that are on the road today. I guess if we cut down the number of cars total due to efficiencies of self-driving carshare maybe that goes down but still... If Level 5 autonomous drive were available TODAY, it's still a long metaphoric road towards complete switchover.

It's hard to tell what the average tractor age is, but it looks between 6 and 10 years old so you have the same rough math in the 6-10 years after we have fully autonomous self-driving trucks where we'll still have half the trucks on the road as human-driven.

Plus if autonomous trucks increase capacity and/or efficiency and cut shipping costs, that might also stimulate shipping demand and therefore keep human drivers on the road longer as well.

Your 10-20 years guess feels right to me, but only after we actually have the autonomous truck thing fully sorted out, IMO.

Re:What I'm Telling US Congress about Data Breaches on Thursday November 30, 2017 @12:44PM (#15817702)
Maybe "credit slander"? Including the added bonus of expanding the set of possible perpetrators.
Re:Ask HN: Best business advice for software developers on Wednesday April 19, 2017 @08:33PM (#14153018)
Two big reasons are:

1. Your devs can always go to where the work is - if you divide FE/BE and suddenly you have a feature that needs a lot of BE dev, you can move people from the now-mostly idle FE team rather than try to hire them

2. You can share business logic between FE/BE for client-side functionality. I've seen a surprising amount of bugs that boiled down to "oh we updated code on the back end but forgot it surfaced somewhere in FE code as well and didn't update there"

Of course, YMMV and this probably highly depends on your project, architecture, quality sensitivity, etc etc. But to say sharing FE/BE languages has "no real upside" is a bit... optimistic IMO.

Re:Filing Taxes After Exercising Start Up Options on Friday February 24, 2017 @06:14PM (#13728829)
My understanding is that Day 0 is the only important day here (or actually, Day 365 doesn't matter). You pay $10K on Day 0 and you earn no "income", so you do not owe any tax.

On Day 900, if your shares are worthless, you can then take that $10K as a long-term capital loss. If and how that can carry forward is something you'll want a tax accountant for.

Here's some of what the IRS has to say about that, but of course - Get an Accountant: https://www.irs.gov/uac/irs-reminds-taxpayers-they-can-use-s...

Re:Confessions of an Instagram Influencer on Friday December 02, 2016 @04:47PM (#13092612)
> That's not an ad, that's genuine interaction.

Well... Hopefully :-/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z696bTiP8Ro

Re:Shopping coming to Instagram on Thursday November 10, 2016 @02:05AM (#12918335)
I actually agree with a lot of what you have to say, and I will offer that this TED talk gives a very interesting perspective on advertising you should try giving a few minutes to: Rory Sutherland: Life lessons from an ad man

http://www.ted.com/talks/rory_sutherland_life_lessons_from_a...

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