nilpunning
US
Number of deaths: 612,390
Crude rate: 185.0
ASR (World) per 100,000: 86.3
Cumulative risk (0-74): 0
Australia
Number of deaths: 48,236
Crude rate: 189.2
ASR (World) per 100,000: 83.3
Cumulative risk (0-74): 0
These numbers seem fairly close, while other countries have much larger differences. The Australia numbers for incidences are higher, perhaps indicating that they catch it earlier or their population suffers from a naturally higher incidence rate, but that does not equate to significantly lower mortality.
Source: https://gco.iarc.fr/
The key seems to be "once recycling is taken into account". Does anyone know if many batteries are currently being recycled? Is recycling economically viable without a technological leap?
You do not need to cultivate this personality trait in our culture. Far more people go too far with this than not far enough, myself included.
Overconfident people believe they know more than they actually do, so they are more eager to criticize your novel idea. This is the type of thinking Graham says he wants to avoid in earlier paragraphs.
Instead of cultivating overconfidence through the deadly sin of pride, we should cultivate increasing true confidence through the cardinal virtue of courage. You can build your confidence by taking greater and greater courageous action. Courage is the choice to confront pain, ridicule, and the unknown all for an uncertain reward.
Graham says, "being slightly overconfident armors you against both other people's skepticism and your own." Acting courageously does this much, much better. In fact, it wouldn't be surprising if Graham agreed. The rest of the essay does a pretty good job explaining how to go about acting courageously, just without using the word.