leviathan235

It's all too little too late. Considering the scale of monetary easing in the last 2+ years, this is like pissing in desert. Quite frankly, I can't blame the market for being skeptical of Powell's "resolve." He did an about face in 2019 with the taper tantrum.

Yes, the IMF exemplifies the folly of global institutions. How long have they propped up kleptocracies like Argentina? "Democracy" is just a nice coat of paint over unbelievably corrupt countries where citizens will never see a dime of those loans yet will have to bear the burden of paying them back.

Yeah, that's the consensus among most prominent economists and by extension politicians. It's based on the flawed assumption that consumption is automatically good and savings is automatically bad. Saving money isn't just going scrooge mcduck and holding it in a vault. Saving money is investing it, which funds innovations and investments. That could be via stocks, bonds, bank deposits (which get loaned out), etc.

I have yet to see a single compelling argument as to why an arbitrary 2% target is superior to say just a 0% target. Macroeconomics is basically a pseudo science anyways.

I've covered insurance companies for a number of years, and here's the rundown:

- Like any other financial services company, insurers' primary concern is risk management. In contrast, a retailer knows exactly what its profit margins are before the product is sold - its primary concern is to sell as many products as possible profitably. However, insurers and banks can sell infinite policies/loans so long as the price is low enough. They also don't know their margins for sure until the policy/loan is complete.

- The average insurer makes more than half their profits from investment income. Most insurers are garbage at writing policies, with the P&C industry averaging around mid-single digit ROE in a year with average catastrophe losses. When I checked a few years ago, aggregate combined ratio (sum of losses & expenses divided by premiums) is in the high 90's percentage.

- Loss costs are getting ridiculous these days (trial lawyers, social inflation), almost across the board, so you're seeing insurers start raising prices across the board. Add to that zero interest rate policy courtesy of our unaccountable central bankers, and insurers are forced to push premium hikes.