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What’s assumed and not explicitly stated is the law of the excluded middle. That A is true or A is false and those are the only 2 possibilities. If you assume the law of the excluded middle then it’s impossible that “A or not-A” is false. So it’s true. But “A or not-A” is true is equivalent to “A and not-A” is false (just apply DeMorgan). So proof by contradiction is you assuming something B is true and it leading to a “A and not-A” (contradiction) so clearly B must be false.

Basically the signal is that the total market for any US AI company is capped at however big the US market is. As non-US AI converges to Opus 4.8 level parity, whatever is still non-US consumer base shrinks towards zero.

You have to keep reinterpreting it until it aligns with whatever the masses currently consider to be true. This has been going on forever. The current hot reinterpretation is to say we’ve been wrong in what the scriptures teach about same-sex relationships and aaacktshually.. it’s fine.

This all reminds me of in the 90s when the Borland C++ compilers and Turbo Pascal shit came out and everyone was still hand rolling assembler because the optimising compilers were so bad. I thought Opus 4.6 was pretty good, basically a step change. The stuff I got out of Fable before they blocked it was nearly alien. If things keep improving, I don’t see humans writing code in 2 to 3 years except maybe super niche areas. This will all go the way that optimising compilers did. No amount of resistance, anger or denialism will change that.

I’d actually love it if LLMs could skip the slow high level lanaguages entirely and just churned out some weird LLM bytecode that was closer to the metal. I don’t want to read it or understand it at all. Here’s my spec, build it and notify when done. I want to ship stuff not build or dick around with code. Basically like when I go to a shop because I want a table, I don’t care if some carpenter “crafted” it or a machine mass produced and spat it out. It’s cute, but most people just want stuff and don’t care how it’s built.

As a non-US person, I will use whatever is the best and reasonably priced. I could not give one iota about who makes or hosts these models. The origin or political leanings of these models mean nothing in my usage calculus.

I think the Amish will mostly be fine. Maybe that's how the future looks like.

Hey, I’m doing the exact same as OP and so is everyone at work I know who has a memefolio of shares. You never bet against papa Musk.

You guys are looking at these IPOs all wrong. Nobody is looking at valuations. It could open at $200 a share it would make no difference.

The one thing you can say though, is that “benefits himself” does not mean: buying a super yacht, a casino, an island, etc.

So yeah, he’d YOLO and do the Mars trip before any of the above. Which is what most nerds on HN would love, except their blind hatred for Musk would make them despise even that.

I use the disparaging nature of the comments on HN as an indicator of AI progress. It’s negatively correlated. By that metric, AI has improved significantly this year alone.

But only during the forward pass of the neural network?

Interesting. Did Neanderthals have souls? We know we interbred with them. The question is then whether earlier hominids also had souls. Was "ensoulment" a gradual phenomenon or did it arise spontaneously? If it was gradual does it mean at some point there was a "cross-over" period where we interbred with soulless hominids? Interbreeding becomes philosophically awkward if ensouled and non-ensouled beings could mate and produce offspring. I don't think it's clear at all even what has a soul and what does not.

So what stops them from just changing it to NotAnna's Archive and operating under that domain?

You’ve written around the existence of pronouns with impressive determination.

I feel like Searle could have taken the argument further down to pen-and-paper because people will somehow think if you can just make the neural network big and fast enough then “mind” and “consciousness” will somehow emerge from the symbol manipulation being done, but if you were to write it down on paper then it wouldn’t. So yeah, if you think that consciousness can arise from computation, then you’re forced to admit it can arise through doing math on paper.

You could push the analogy even further and run the thought experiment where every forward pass through an LLM could in principle be done on pen and paper, distributed throughout all humanity. Sure it would take a long time, but the output would be exactly the same. We’ve just shifted the implementation from GPU to scribbling things down on paper. If you want to assert that LLMs are “conscious” then you would have to likewise say this pen-and-paper implementation is conscious unless you want to say a certain clock-speed is a necessary condition for consciousness.

Also none of Aristotle’s exoteric works is extant. All we have are dry, boring lecture notes. Cicero said his public works were a “golden stream of speech” and its all lost. So I don’t see how you’d build an artificial Aristotle when we don’t have any of his polished works meant for the public surviving. Plato would be a better option, since his entire exoteric corpus is extant.

And that is why no one will remember your name.

I must have missed the brief somewhere, but there was/is a very clear trend to replace the default male pronoun for gender neutrality with the female pronoun she. Just recently I noticed this in Judea Pearl’s Book of Why. When and why did this start happening? It feels so forced and unnatural. You can sense he’s trying to kiss someone’s ass or appease an authority. At least mix it up a bit at best if you truly give a crap.

I feel like there are clear signs, but either people have cognitive blind spots or are just obstinate. For example, you hear people complain that they've been for a bajillion interviews and still don't get hired (hint: the problem is you), or they're always single even though they go on countless dates (hint: the problem is you) or they're overweight and can't lose weight no matter what they try (hint: the problem is you). Maybe an inability to introspect yourself in an objective way? Maybe a deep seated belief that the problem cannot actually be _you_, it must be an external factor, so you seek that. Maybe you're not being gaslit, maybe the ever-present smell of shit really does emanate from under your shoe.

I don’t actually even know what people are hinting at when they say that LLMs replace the need for building custom models. Regression models? People are using LLMs instead of say building a Bayesian hierarchical model? That’s not possible. Time series modeling using an LLM? Also ridiculous. Recommender systems? Ok maybe, still utterly ridiculous and abysmally slow.

For anything NLP sure, it definitely wins. However, I’ve just recently used some big fancy OpenAI model to actually just label thousands of text data for me, just so I could build a classifier with CatBoost. Guess what, inference speed is at a guaranteed sub 100ms and it costs $0 in tokens. The”AI Engineer” solution here would be just run every classification request through an LLM.

AI Engineering is going to have the same problem we had when Data Science as a term arrived and you had every Statistician saying they’re just re-inventing everything that exists in statistics, poorly.

Well, not if you have AI reviewers…

It’s LLMs all the way down.

Like, bro, do you think 5.x is a drop in replacement for 4.1? No it obviously wasn’t, since it had reasoning effort and verbosity and no more temperature setting, etc.

There’s no way you can switch model versions without testing and tweaking prompts, even the outputs usually look different. You pin it on a very specific version like gpt-5.2-20250308 in prod.

In The Laws you find: strict supervision of marriage age, mandatory procreation windows, state monitoring of reproduction, penalties for bachelors, public scrutiny of household conduct, drinking regulation, limits on wealth and inheritance, formal theology enforced by law, criminal penalties for impiety, special prisons for “atheists”, etc. it goes on and on. The Laws makes The Republic look like Disneyland to be honest.

Absolutely nuts, I feel like I'm living in a parallel universe. I could list several anecdotes here where Claude has solved issues for me in an autonomous way that (for someone with 17 years of software development, from embedded devices to enterprise software) would have taken me hours if not days.

To the nay sayers... good luck. No group of people's opinions matter at all. The market will decide.

All these so-called safe jobs still depend on someone being able to afford those services. If I don't have a job, I can't go see the vet, the fact that no one else can do the vets job is irrelevant at such a point.

I would like to know if there's some kind of inflection point, like the so-called Laffer curve for taxes, where once an economy has X% unemployment, it effectively collapses. I'd imagine it goes: recession -> depression -> systemic crisis and appears to be somewhere between 30-40% unemployment based on history.

I’m sure programmers who wrote their code on punch cards felt the same. Then programmers who wrote in assembler felt the same about high-level languages and optimising compilers.

Unfortunately, this is an observational study and when you get to the confounding part, they kind of shrug their shoulders and say “well, we included a bunch of covariates that should reduce make the bias go away”, but there’s no causal diagram so we have no idea how they reasoned about this. If you’ve read even something layman friendly like Pearl’s Book of Why you should be feeling nervous about this.

It’s also weird to think that if there is extraterrestrial contact, it will most definitely happen in the specific land mass known as the United States and only the US government will be collecting said technology and hiding it. Out of the entire planet, contact is possible only in the USA.

Well function composition f(g(x)) is not the same as g(f(x)) and when you represent f and g as matrices relative to some suitable set of basis functions then obviously AB and BA should be different. If the multiplication was defined any different, that wouldn’t work.

Rudin’s Principles of Mathematical Analysis aka Baby Rudin. Small, short, terse yet has brought many undergraduates to tears.