kayewiggin

There's not too much fake origin stuff from Vietnam to China, which is the largest SEA country exporting to China.

"While trade rerouting through Vietnam does occur, its scale appears far smaller than previously thought. The study found that in 2021, about 16.1 per cent of Vietnamese exports to the US — roughly US$15.5 billion — could be classified as potential rerouting when analysed at the product level. But when the researchers examined individual firms — tracking specific products flowing from China through Vietnam to the US — the figure fell to just 1.8 per cent, or US$1.7 billion."

https://fulcrum.sg/vietnam-china-and-rerouting-when-percepti...

Very comprehensive list of how China has lost export power to US over the years. Remember that US has the largest consumer market in the world, more than double the second place, EU. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_consumer_marke...

https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenroberts/2024/06/25/us-import...

- Chinese imports into the United States are down 19.78% from April of 2018 — when Trump first started imposing tariffs — to today, or $31.88 billion.

- Cell phones: Big winner is India. China has gone from a market share of 63.59% in 2018 to a still strong 42.14%. That’s a decline of 33.73%.

- Computers: Big winners are Taiwan, Vietnam. China has gone from a market share from 53.45% in the first four months of 2018 to 28.11%, a decline of 47.40%.

- Furniture: Big winner is Vietnam. China, meanwhile, accounted for 23.55% this year, down from 48.54% in 2018, a decline of 51.49% compared to a gain of 88.67% for Vietnam.

- TVs and monitors: Big winner is Vietnam. Mexico overtook China as the import leader in this category just before the pandemic and has remained on top. It gained market share from China, which fell from 53.68% in 2018, when it was No. 1, to 33.64%, a 37.32% decline.

- Digital storage devices: Big winners are Korea, Vietnam. China accounted for 39.50% of those imports in 2018, more than double that of any other nation. In 2024, its percentage is 4.23% and it ranks No. 9.

- Digital cameras: Yep, Vietnam again. China, meanwhile, has seen its share go from a majority, at 50.09%, to 17.57%, a decline of 64.92%.

1.) The article is from January 2024.

2.) Some of the data that it's based on is up to 2023. And some are up to 2020

3.) There has been massive movement of manufacturing out of China between 2020 and 2024. I won't provide the references here, as there are too many to mention, from Japanese/Taiwanese/South Korean/European/American companies. They are easily chatgpted/googled. Also the reason why Shenzhen and Guangzhou has suffered deeper drop of real estate price and employment.

4.) In 2024, Mexico was the biggest exporter to US. United States was the biggest exporter to Europe. US was the largest export destination of Japan.

5.) Trump's 60%-100% tariff on China will accelerate the exodus of manufacturing

> a competitor (China) has caught up in most of industries

stop spreading misinformation. go look at largest companies by market cap in the world https://companiesmarketcap.com/ and you'll see US domination while China has a few handful of companies, mostly banks.

> government and elites realized that we’re screwed

That's more like China. That's why 15k rich chinese are fleeing the country in 2024 https://www.forbes.com/sites/miltonezrati/2024/07/03/high-ne..., the most of any country in the world. US isn't the one where the stock market and real estate has collapsed.

here's a video of a Chinese family living on the 16th floor of a rotten tail building (unfinished building) with no running water or electricity.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZjaE8mDbq68

China's real estate prices having dropped 50% or more has been accompanied by/caused by wages being slashed 50% or more, and increasing unemployment rate, such as 30%+ for youth.

Here are some good posts on why nobody wants deflation:

https://www.reddit.com/r/AskEconomics/comments/uzq5bu/why_is...

https://www.reddit.com/r/AskEconomics/comments/mbsxyl/can_so...

https://www.reddit.com/r/AskEconomics/comments/yotf0c/i_dont...

also coincidentally and recently, China’s Xi Jinping asked ‘What’s so bad about deflation?’ amid economic slowdown https://fortune.com/2024/12/29/china-economy-deflation-xi-ji...

> making drones / evs / high end electornics

China does have a current advantage on lithium battery and rare earth materials - dumb technologies that US and allies can replicate fairly quickly, less than a year. EUV and 3nm and below on the other hand, will take decades, since it involves a number of different and deep technologies controlled by dozens of companies. China has thrown $150B on it since 2014, and has only come up with low yield/unprofitable 7nm via existing DUV machines.

> 80% GDP

China's demographics will more than HALF to 500M by 2100, if not earlier, while US grows to close to 400M by then. Someone actually theorizes that China's population is already only 800M right now https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fR5F_8dSjOw

Also, a lot of that GDP is debatable in 2024, when real estate prices have dropped by more than 50% in tier 2 and below cities, and deflation has raged on.

1.) EU will soon have rules to prevent Chinese AI from proliferating, since China is ramping up on its support of Russia invasion of Europe - China Is Cutting Off Drone Supplies Critical to Ukraine War Effort [1]. China is reportedly making drones for Russia instead, according to multiple intelligence officials.

2.) Chinese models have to censor a long list of words that threatens the government, which makes them super dumb. List of stupid words example: sprinkle pepper, accelerationism, my emperor, lifelong control, etc. and the list of censored words grow(!!) as Chinese citizens try different combination of words to escape censorship.

3.) not even sure what this sentence means and how it makes Chinese models better

[1] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-09/china-is-...

> China has been building strong relationships with a number of countries

Number of irrelevant countries. US's allies are Europe, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Canada, Mexico, Australia, etc. 80% of the world's wealth. and 95% of the world's top technologies.

> guess where these countries are buying their drones from

Soon, not China. China Is Cutting Off Drone Supplies Critical to Ukraine War Effort [1]. China is reportedly making drones for Russia instead, according to multiple intelligence officials.

[1] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-09/china-is-...

China has 900M people making less than $400/month, and 600M people making less than $100/month. relative GDP is a joke, go to China to see what most of them are eating (hint: it's unsafe food filled with chemicals, or its mostly carbs) and where these people are living (hint: it's shoddy constructed condos or run down farm houses)

> Have you seen the number of Chinese-made commercial-grade drones used by Ukraine?

China Is Cutting Off Drone Supplies Critical to Ukraine War Effort [1]. China is reportedly making drones for Russia instead, according to multiple intelligence officials.

[1] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-09/china-is-...

Why should Europe allowed China to attack and destroy its car industry, when China is also helping Russia destroy Europe militarily?

Good thing Europe woke up earlier this year. impact of the EU’s tariffs on Chinese EV manufacturers. In November, Chinese automakers captured just 7.4% of Europe’s EV market, a noticeable drop from 8.2% in October and their lowest share since March [1].

As for US, the 100% tariff has safely protected America from Chinese EVs thus far.

[1]https://www.autoblog.com/news/chinas-ev-invasion-hits-a-wall

Please DOGE, do to US's federal spending what milei did to the Argentina government. Argentina's inflation now is at a four year low.

Let me put it in another way; it's similar to the US banks during 2008, when they appeared to be healthy, holding lots of subprime loans on their books.

If we are talking about China's credit, China has a lot of subprime loans to belt and road countries that have very little income, and lot of subprime loans to their citizens, which recently a scholar reported that 900M of them make less than $400/month.

Deflation by itself, sure. Deflation when coupled with huge and increasing debt to service, then you have a crippling problem. That means your ability to pay off your debt gets harder and harder as time goes on, and most of your income goes to service debt principal and interest, and not on actual income growth. China plans a record $411 billion special treatment treasury bond next year, for example, but most if not all of that is just helping local governments pay off debts.

China being the largest creditor doesn't mean much when a lot of their debt is issued to belt and road countries that can never be paid back, and will be written off in the future. It does have a large US debt holdings, but that has shrank from 1.27T (2013) to 772B (2024), and a large part of that being used for cross border transactions.

It's pretty tiring responding to folks who just parrot Chinese government's official 5% numbers and never bothered look into the actual details. Like its well educated workforces being laid off at age 35, and 80% of recent graduates are unemployed or driving didi or delivering food. Or China's low end manufacturing shutting down or moving to Southeast Asia, and high end manufacturing being tariffed/sanctioned.

Here are some actual experts take on China: Longtime China bull Ray Dalio fears economy faces problems as severe as Japan in 1990 https://fortune.com/2024/09/18/ray-dalio-china-property-bubb...

or Private equity investors trapped in China as top firms fail to find exit deals https://www.ft.com/content/0575e216-8dae-4df6-bf50-312f78468...

or Starbucks reportedly mulling China business stake sale https://www.worldcoffeeportal.com/Latest/News/2024/November/...

Being in spiraling deflation while the rest of the world suffers from inflation is a big sign of being broke.

Having debt to GDP ratio of 310% and local governments being unable to pay out salaries for many months is a big sign of being broke. (google or chatgpt the salary news, they are everywhere)

Consumer spending dropping 20% y/y in November in Beijing and Shanghai is a sign of being broke.

52,000 EV-related companies shut down in China in 2023 and an increase of 90% on the year before, where most EV companies were the targets of government subsidies, is a sign of being broke.

30% drop in revenues from land sales in 2024, which the local government derive most of its revenue on, is a sign of being broke.

China is not self sufficient; it imports 80% of consumed soybeans and other food products, and 90% of semiconductor equipments. Nor is it even remotely at the same level as Japan when Japan entered the lost decades. 600M Chinese citizens earned less than $100/month as of 2020. Recently, a scholar reported 900M Chinese citizens earned less than $400/month.

US fully recovered from Great Depression in 1939, 2 years before entering ww2. Weimar Germany started in 1918 and ended in 1933 at the beginning of nazi Germany, 15 years later.

You can't start a war when you are truly broke, much like China is today. And China is aging super fast, unlike Germany or US during the 30s.

Then Intel is going to have to wait for a very long time. At best, China is currently in a scenario similar to Japan's lost decade of 30 years or US's Great Depression. At worst, China's current deflation + massive debt seems eerily similar to Weimar Germany's early internal devaluation. China is pretty fucked.

China is in the beginning of a 30 year Great Depression, in no shape to invade Taiwan. Consumer spending in Beijing and Shanghai fell 20% y/y in November. Real estate prices have collapsed 50%, even in some parts of Beijing and Shanghai. Trump has filled the cabinet with mostly anti-China hawks, indicating large tariffs coming next year. Capital outflow from China increased to $45B in November, largest monthly deficit ever. China is pretty fucked.