hx8

It's $8 to register a .org. Basically nothing, and I actually learned something from the link. Feels like a net public good.

It's surprising what a small team can accomplish, but there are some projects that need a large team to be feasible. It would be nice if there was a clear path on how to grow a game studio and continue to deliver quality.

The term "platform" implies a level of neutrality that doesn't exist in modern social media. The algorithm is making heavy decisions about what messages to amplify and which messages to suppress, on top of the possibility of a human putting their thumb on the scale.

This isn't a new problem. We've always had a few gatekeepers that steer the public narrative. This is a problem that the internet provides a clear opportunity to help solve, but has seemed to fall short. It's a clear blow to all of us techo-optimists.

How seriously people treat this risk will play a major role into the fate of the major labs. It's going to be used in the argument for bailout. It could be used to spin a more extreme narrative, pushing for a flavor of nationalization. At least one lab will survive in the defense sector, but it could be a secondary lab that is a M&A target of an established company.

If the risk is serious or not has little impact on how seriously we treat the risk. Just another way that AI is disconnecting us from ground truth.

1. Investors lose interest and many companies lose access to capital.

2. A lot of the purchases from AI companies are being made with investor capital. As this dries up companies with high debt scramble to service the debt and focus on profits to achieve this goal. This means higher prices and less investment into infrastructure.

3. This has large ripple effects across the broader financial markets, which forces federal intervention. Maybe bailouts for the tech sector. Maybe just some quantitative easing.

4. There will be a second wave of AI companies in the wake that focus on delivering value under constrained capital markets. These will be well positioned 10 years later to catch a major updraft in the next finical cycle.

5. Overall western R&D activity in AI decreases under these conditions, lower hardware costs allow foreign labs to operate at much lower hardware costs. This increases the systematic risk that Artificial Super Intelligence is eventually developed in a rival nation state.

Yes, it happens. It's even happened with alcohol in certain population cohorts. I would just want to see stronger data before predicting alcohol consumption going to zero. Alcohol is a tradition lasting millenniums.

Generally speaking, the longer something has been common the more time it will continue to be common. A fad vs a trend vs a tradition. Of course alcohol use can change. We see several cohorts with very low alcohol consumption. It's just that if we've been doing something for thousands of years, we're likely to continue to do it for thousands of years.

This is far from the first fluctuation of alcohol consumption rates we have data for. This is a major trend that will last decades but not a march to long term 0.

> We say something like:

> GitHub Actions: 12 hours affected in the last 30 days (98.31% uptime).

This is trying to shine the most favorable possible light onto a deteriorating situation. It doesn't take away from the fact that most businesses have measurable missed revenue in downtime. Customers that shop somewhere else, ads that were never severed, leads that grew a little colder. 12 hours of downed GitHub results in millions of dollars of lost developer productivity that was externalized by Microsoft to other companies.

We shouldn't be trying to spin downtime as "just a few hours a month." Those hours cost real dollars.

The Manhattan project was divided into smaller problems that were solved by experts without them fully understanding the nature of the project. Then, the solution was reassembled by a handful of experts.

You can divide a missile guidance system into smaller subsections and then either stitch the solution together by hand, or using a local AI w/o the restrictions of Claude.

I am under the impression that Firefox is the only web browser which has access to quality ad blocker. Am I incorrect in this? How is this not enough of a selling point for everyone to switch to it?

I've been using it since about February, still using it. It's running on my old M1 MBP. I have a lot of automations on OpenClaw, things like "Every week summarize this data and send me a message about it" or "check when a new version of an NPM package comes out and submit a PR to update it."

It's quite expensive from a value per token perspective. It's quite cheap from a "send one message from my phone and it does something probably productive" perspective. No major security breaches yet.

I don't think these things are luxury at all, but can be packaged as luxury. For example, you can find quiet parks in most metro areas or you can go to a retreat in a resort in the mountains.

For years I've been buying only 98%+ natural fiber clothing. I can still find t-shirts for about $10, but I do have to spend time examining the tag on clothes. I also noticed that Nordstrom's app can filter by fabric type, but the clothes there are sold at a premium.

1. Do any of the cost savings recommendations you address come close to $1T/yr impact? This is the scale we should be aiming for.

2. If you think this modeling is inaccurate or incomplete you can directly discuss that. That would be a much more interesting discussion than "it might be incorrect."

The non-healthcare sectors of the economy do.

Social Security is another great example.

> The problem with US healthcare isn't who pays for it, its how damn expensive it is

Saving $1,000,000,000,000/yr is directly addressing how damn expensive it is.

Nothing executes more unverified untrusted code than a web browser will. You want some separation between it and everything else you have going on.

I actually think of degree mills as being vertically scaled. Online courses, a lot of course work graded by computers, large classrooms, etc.

As for the quality, I think small classrooms with good teachers probably produces a better outcome than large classrooms with great teachers.

At this point you're just describing learning using buzz words.

> would be impossible to scale

I think education is something better scaled horizontally than vertically. More schools, with more professors instead increasing the student per professor throughput. The classes where I learned the absolute most, and had the best experience, were closer in size to 25 than 100.

I don't love this framing among software developers. This framing is very transactional, when many of the authors are explicitly trying to make their work free. The best thing a software dev can do is donate some of their time to do more open source development, and in that way we all benefit from having more and better open source tools. If someone wants to exchange code for money there are plenty of avenues to do that. Starting an open source project and using it to attract VC funding is one path.

I switched from tmux to Herdr about six weeks ago. It's a great bit of software, the UI is focused on switching between multiple agents quickly. I run Herdr to keep my opencode instances well managed, and it also works great for having a few terminals opens next to your agent. I find myself keeping opencode sessions open for longer like what happens with Codex and Claude code, which is great if I need to revisit a context to do some follow up work. I'm genuinely excited to see if the creators can bring even more value to the application.

If you're worried about enshittification I wouldn't be. It's relatively basic open source software that runs locally. A perfect candidate for a fork if the base app starts degrading.

> I think everyone in the HN crowd knows that.

I actually did not. I know there is some degree of two-way communication over HDMI/DP, and was curious if this was how the software was installed. I think discussing the technical details is a great use of the HN comment section.

(Wifi enabled display device -> HDMI -> Device) would be an incredibly interesting attack vector.

These eras of Windows had their own dark patterns that were incredibly anti-consumer. No one's lives were improved because they installed the Ask Jeeves toolbar, but people were asked to install it millions and millions of times.

I remember when Windows didn't take gigabytes of space because there wasn't gigabytes of space, and it was still shitware.

Like every other group, there is some amount of groupthink happening with Wall Street analysts. They all came to similar incorrect conclusions because they are working with similar information using similar techniques towards similar goals. This creates a level of bias, even if banks didn't have incentives to write bullish projections.

Getting a diversity of opinions doesn't mean talking to 10 experts in the same field, but talking to experts in 10 related fields.

$200b seems very low for a company with this level of capital investment. They did 167 launches last year. It's one of the few industries where US is outproducing China. We have both more launches and heavier launches.

Put another way, the US spent $250b~ (inflation adjusted) dollars on the shuttle program, and we get much more output from SpaceX than we did for Shuttle.

SpaceX is still a $1.6T company measured by the sum total paper value of all of its stock. Its stock would have to go down another 40% from today's value before it is not "a trillion dollar company."

It could grow, it could shrink, but it seems like the root comment misunderstood the headline by thinking it's current market cap is <$1T

I'd rather have slower and better output than worse and faster output.

It's complex and imperfect, but in this situation the most direct ROI would be the cost of recruiting a newly graduated doctor by increasing the salary until someone accepts compared to the cost of providing the scholarship.