graphpercolator

It is just hard for me to believe the Russian economy can collapse in 2022 without causing a global financial contagion. We are probably already beyond the 1998 Russian financial crisis and that was in a far less interconnected global economy.

The global financial system is interconnected in unknowable ways. It is far too high dimension to reason about or model in any meaningful way. Especially the higher order effects of these decisions.

I would just be shocked that what Russia is planning to do will stabilize anything.

I just don't know if blindly pulling every financial lever available is the right move here given the fragility of the global economy after 2 years of COVID.

Gazprom is down 50% in London https://www.londonstockexchange.com/stock/OGZD/pjsc-gazprom/...

Ruble chart is just incredible with rates hiked to 20% in one day. https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/USDRUB/

Even if could hold everything equal, that rate hike crushes the valuation of the stock market.

I really think you underestimate what we just did to their financial system.

Everyone's savings have been destroyed and they had to hike rates to 20%.

Russia didn't even open the stock market for trading so that is just going to make things worse.

Cutting them off from SWIFT means banks are practically useless. The whole economy is basically in a free fall right now.

We have known this for so long now. The problem is that is not the answer people want.

People want the holy grail, literally. Eat pizza, drink beer while sitting playing video games and take a magic pill that makes you young again.

I love listening to him but the problem is I know calorie restriction and time restricted eating is smart but I love good food more.

People don't just want to live longer. They want to basically do absolutely nothing different than what they do now and also live longer. I wish we at least would frame the problem correctly.

IMO there is no solution that is so much better than MIDI CC to give up the backward compatibility and universality of MIDI.

The whole idea is so absurd.

The longest stay in space currently is 14 months and Mars is nearly two years away.

Going to Mars is just a super charging station for Musk's narcissistic supply.

Looking at the chart of USD RUB this is going to have massive consequences.

IMO we have probably just got rid of Putin and brought back Russian Communism.

Then you will have a Communist block with China that instantly has nuclear parity with the West.

Anyone with savings in rubles just had their savings turned to dust. I think we underestimate the power of financial weapons in the 21st century.

To me, he does a great job of letting the ideas of the guest be the main focus.

I don't want to hear him tell jokes or try to be a comedian.

Not Plasma? https://i0.wp.com/9to5linux.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/k...

The idea of using Windows 95 instead of Plasma is just absurd to me.

Windows 95 Explorer vs Dolphin? What?

There has to be so many questions in so many of the Russian boots on the grounds minds about this.

That matters more IMO than what the military brass thinks.

This is a video game view of war though. As if the authoritarian has a video game controller that lets the video game characters do as the authoritarian pleases.

This has nothing to do with the reality of the Russian military on the ground.

Surely, the Iraq invasion was over so fast exactly because so much of the Iraq military did not want to die to defend Saddam Husein.

The will to fight is so asymmetrical in Ukraine. Surely, the Russian military is not oblivious to what the world thinks of this. So one side is willing to die to defend their country and the other side probably just wants to get back home alive and get this over. The Russians also can't just level every city to the ground and call that victory. They have to break the will of the people without destroying everything.

It is a recipe to lose the war even if you win some battles. The Russian path to victory is extremely small and maybe even impossible in this situation.

Generative music is absolutely nothing new either.

I have listened to so much generative music the last 25 years and there was one piano piece that was really good and something that felt like a unique style. Not good enough though that I even remember the name of the piece.

Generative music is really no different than what you get when a human starts noodling around with music making software. It is almost literally the same process.

This is all nonsense.

The division is because we haven't had anything to unite over since 9/11. The Iraq war was divisive.

At this point it is half the country living in one media fantasy land and the other half living in different media fantasy land. Both think they are the ones not living in a media fantasy land but believe the other side is. Both think the fantasy land they live in is objectively true.

Just like from your post the fantasy land you are in is no mystery. It is fun to watch this process honestly when you don't have a horse in the race.

If another country invaded the US though this would all disappear instantly overnight. A legit war with China or Russia that brings the threat of intercontinental missiles, this would all vanish overnight.

Totally agree. I even go with three. One work gave me, one for my own hard mental work and one for everything else.

For me, I am just not going to play on my personal work computer after going through the trouble and space to set all this up.

I don't think this is even the problem though. We have amazing physical modeling synths but the problem is it is not "playable" with a keyboard in the sense of being able to control all the needed variables.

You basically need a breathe controller to make a realistic playable sax sound otherwise you can't control the variables in real time that are needed.

Personally, I want to hear synth sounds that are not even trying to be reproductions of acoustic instruments. If I want to hear a sax sound I want to hear someone who is really good on a real sax and who knows how to actually play a sax.

Honestly, I think if you had resources you would eventually run into someone who would use violence to take those resources and the last line in your post is exactly what would happen.

Totally agree. Nuclear war is something completely different. There is nothing to come back to.

Resource scarcity would turn things violent really quickly for the survivors.

No idea what you are talking about.

They jumped on electronic warfare as a new type of weapon.

It costs practically nothing to get a huge effect if successful.

If I was a country with limited resources compared to the US , electronic warfare is getting massive funding because of the bang for the buck. There is no conspiracy theory, just common sense.

For sure. $100 dollar oil makes a ton of supply profitable.

It just won't be here tomorrow though.

Yea of a 140 million people they all agree with Putin. 0% disagree with Putin and even if they did 0% would use Reddit to communicate with people outside of Russia.

Come on.

Russia has a population of a 140 million people.

It is utterly preposterous to believe not a single one uses Reddit AND doesn't agree with their government.

Not to mention, where do you think those people would go?

Maybe Reddit? Maybe that actually makes a ton of sense?

"The government has also proposed measures that would force companies to filter out "legal but harmful" material"

This isn't government censorship though. It is just a private company that can choose to comply with the law or not. Something something not censorship. Something something children!!

Sergey Brin was born in Moscow though so who is to say when it comes to war.

I do agree though, this is most likely just the nature of the problem of trying to moderate such a massive amount of video content.

Some will be caught in the net and attribute agency to the process when it was just completely random.

I mean there is 50k watching a live stream of Kyiv right now.

I think we confuse though doing data science on historic data to spot these manipulative communities vs doing that same data science in near real time to have any real counter effect on it.

I really doubt they could stop propaganda before the message is sent without deleting a ton of accounts that are false positives.

I would question if you were alive at the time then because the world basically thought our evidence was bullshit to go into Iraq but we went in anyway and the evidence turned out to be bullshit.

I don't see the reason for not just doing this as Jupyter notebooks.

I am child free but I just can't see not using Jupyter notebooks.

If I had a kid we would learn jupyter after learning multiplication.

5*7 shift+enter

variable = "hello kid"

variable shift+enter in a new cell.

We only have ourselves to blame for this.

Of course there is an information attack on social media right now.

The countries on Russia's side in all this are smart enough to see the value and ease in doing this while we are just oblivious. We are so helplessly addicted to social media that IMO we are willfully oblivious. It is comical to think about at this very moment there are thousands of people pissed off but also highly engaged with the opinions of bots.

When part of the business model is based on optimal engagement I don't know what you expect the companies to do. This is a feature from their perspective.

US Postal Service at this point is mostly paying people to deliver paper advertisements though.

It has to be about 50 to 1 at this point in terms of the ratio of important mail I get compared to junk mail that goes straight in the garbage.

It doesn't have to be profitable but the cost to send mail should cover the operation. It is absurd that it is worth it for so many companies to flood people with literal garbage.

"We build these new platforms and technologies with privacy and safety baked in from the beginning"

The lack of self awareness is just astounding.