gotdangloch

>But people reading you should understand that companies don't locate production in China for low cost reasons, they do it as to gain access to the consumer market.

"the share of Nike shoes made in China fell off a cliff, going from 32 percent in 2012 to 19 percent in 2017."

> The higher value stuff is not going to move though

you mean like foxconn $10b display panel factory in wisconsin? groundbreaking this month? https://www.jsonline.com/story/money/real-estate/commercial/...

or apple's manufacturing investment in US https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2018/01/apple-accelerates-us-...

or boeing/bmw automation in US? https://www.postandcourier.com/business/south-carolina-manuf...

China export will decline significantly after companies finish their move out of China due to the tariffs. no one is going to stay when tariff rates starts at 10% and may end up way higher (50%?) depending on how the trade war goes

"the share of Nike shoes made in China fell off a cliff, going from 32 percent in 2012 to 19 percent in 2017." https://www.gq.com/story/nike-adidas-shifting-production-asi...

In 2015, the U.S. reached parity between offshoring and returning jobs, and 2016 was the first time since 1970 that the United States reshored more jobs than were lost to offshoring. https://blog.thomasnet.com/manufacturing-reshoring-2018-upda...

Why so Many Foreign Businesses are moving to Vietnam https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/why-so-many-foreign-businesse...

Xi Jing Ping is running scared. The stock market has fallen 25% this year. Yuan has fallen 10%. There's a 400 billion tariff coming his way, and because of 'saving face', there's no way he will back down. He has to also unwind China's 12-18T shadow banking, China's version of subprime loans similar to 2008 crisis (but way bigger). He has to figure out how to steal IP to move up the chain when US and the rest of the world has upped their defense, restricting Chinese tech investments and resisting hacking attempts. He also needs to deal with the tariffs encouraging manufacturers to leave China and go to southeast asia or back home via reshoring or automation. There is also the matter of a lack of consumer market in China, after it gets shut out of US and europe. Not much Chinese consumers can buy after $800/month income, after paying most of it to mortgage and inflated food prices.

He also has to prop up the real estate bubble:

"price rose 31 percent to nearly $202 per square foot. That's 38 percent higher than the median price per square foot in the U.S., where per-capita income is more than 700 percent higher than in China." https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-06-24/why-china...