giovan-ni

Symptoms are quite different, though. And they are evaluated by the ‘medico di base’ (general practitioner) before requesting a viral test. So I am not clear on what could be confounding.

As another resident (Milano), I think corruption is endemic in the regional health system. This is, of course, not to deny Lombardy healthcare compares well relative to that of most other Italian and European regions. Still, it was clearly overwhelmed and mismanaged. In my opinion, this and the timing of the first response account for the many deaths. And those in charge of both need to be held accountable.

That said, I do think the numbers of the Policlinico study might well be representative, at least regarding Milano. It is just anecdotal, but I know a lot of people there that got sick, but where unable to get tested, or waited weeks before receiving any treatment.

1) In what scale can we expect the economic slowdown to be?

In the 2 digits. A working day weights between around .2% and .5% of annual GDP.

2) Will this be as bad as the 2008 recession?

No. Entirely different. Both supply and demand contraction are implied by the rational choice of social distancing.

In principle, there is no reason, other than mental habit, to think that a GDP loss would be a bad thing in itself.

The overall effect could be much worse depending on the death and sickness toll.

3) What kind of economic climate can we expect for the next one year?

Economic climate would improve with:

- a quick inexpensive testing solution, which would hopefully allow immune workers to resume activity - an effective therapy, which would allow working age population to resume social interaction and working - a vaccine (probably not a relevant condition for the coming year)

So the answer depends on any of these happening during the coming year.

4) What will governemnts across the world do to overcome the crisis?

Very difficult to predict, not even knowing who will be the President of the US.

Writing from a European perspective, I hope the current talks of a common unemployment insurance would spark a common fiscal policy in the aftermath, but I would not bet much on it.

The proposal that I find the most convincing for a here and now policy to pave the way to recovery is ‘helicopter money’ as articulated, for instance, by Jordi Galì:

https://voxeu.org/article/helicopter-money-time-now

101-year-old Italians are making the news so often lately:

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/feb/12/home-office-...

It is very hard not to think that also the number of deaths (not only that of cases) is under-reported. For instance, the Major of Bergamo, one of the few not entirely rotten politicians, claims that actual deaths in the Province in the last days have been 4 times the reported deaths. He verified the figures with the other majors. Who died at home, and there have been many, has not been tested.

Here the interview:

https://www.huffingtonpost.it/entry/giorgio-gori-chiudete-tu...

And it is very hard not to think that the most plausible explanation for the anomaly is shortage in ICUs.

Not entirely unnoticed, cfr: https://voxeu.org/article/intergenerational-ties-and-case-fa...

Mostly by fast tracking newly graduated, who normally have to attend a 2 to 6 year long specialty school. This would amount to around 10 000 new hires, according to the Ministry of University.

he is breathing on is own since yesterday, still hospitalized

It was part coincidence. I had a week without teaching duties. But I packed for a long stay. What convinced me was the carefree attitude of many.

Two examples:

"Nothing to worry about, it is just a little more than a regular flu" (Attilio Fontana, Governor of Lombardia)

"#milanononsiferma" (Giuseppe Sala, Major of Milano)

You are right about the leakage. The final decree places no restrictions on traveling back to residence, and even admits self-certification of other reasons for traveling.

I am not sure you are right in assuming the leakage was unintended, though. If they wanted people to run, the effective way was to force a choice under the imminent and vague threat of being trapped in the ‘red zone’.

I think the sequence of choices is what matters most. First they ‘quarantined’ Lombardia and some surrounding provinces. This looked nonsensical, or worse, as the contagion spread was nationwide already. Not two full days after, they are extending the restrictive measures to the whole of Italy. The net result is to have scared back home a lot of people working or studying in Lombardia, thereby easing the potential burden on the collapsing regional health system.

The restrictive measures themselves are hardly enforceable, with some very important exceptions, e.g. schools. Hopefully, they would induce some change in habits.

I am from Milano, and my daily life has certainly been affected. I left the city two weeks ago. It was easy for me, though, as I can distance teach and I have a place in the mountains.