fixedpointsnake

I agree. The most likely scenario is that this is just a "new normal" lift that is percolating through human endeavors and will saturate at some point. For example, the whole cyber-security bruhaha should ultimately resolve into higher standards for code published -- we can now cheaply find and fix a whole slew of minor bugs that weren't worth our time before.

The fact we see a lift is not the same as evidence that the lift is unbounded.

The lift being finite is supported by the fact improvements have come at the edges: improvements from human feedback, improvements in harnesses, improvements on model compatibility with harnesses, improvements in inference efficiency with new architectures, etc. If we were just training better models from scratch that would be one thing, but we are just making better use of a tool we've developed.

I can see that. And your counterexample is also pretty apt.

I guess universally it may not be true, but I suspect for some it very well could be. Just depends on the value function you ascribe to (knowingly or unknowingly).

It should also be said that this topic is more complex than these simple models. I've heard it described that Narcissists essentially refute the evidence rather than allow it to poke a hole in their bubble of self-worth; All of that to say, there are many moving pieces beyond just how you value things that add up to your self-worth.

>If this was the case at all, a great treatment for low self esteem would be to commit to stuff for others, since that'd automatically make you valuate your own self more

How do you know this is not true?

If your sense of obligation is seen as a value function for people, it follows that your self-worth is the value when you plug-in "self". Helping others and volunteering is indeed something that brings satisfaction and could help heal your sense of self-worth. If you value another person higher than yourself, by helping them you would establish a connection between their worth and your own. You potentially went from lacking any evidence of positive self-worth to having concrete first-hand evidence that you are worth something to someone.

I've been looking for this comment in all these stories regarding the ineffectiveness of phenylephrine!

I have a similar story. Congestion is not a symptom I typically get. Covid, however, decided to shake things up and introduce me to a new set of symptoms... One of those was congestion such that my head felt like a balloon. Without experience treating this symptom, I went out and ended up with Sudafed PE, oral phenylephrine. It worked _immediately_, it was like a balloon deflating. It worked so well that these headlines regarding phenylephrine's ineffectiveness still cause bemusement...

anddd that's my story.