briancof

Recognizing it was first-order approximation, two significant problems with the comparison: 1. E-bike riders likely to travel much faster. Since drag is quadratic, change in consumption significant. 2. The important energy comparison might not be manual bikes, but other modes of transit. A current driver/transit-rider might choose to bike 15 miles each way only if on an e-bike.

It seems like modeling could help get an idea of the size and frequency of each cash shortfall and thus inform how large a short-term credit line you needed?

Won't argue with that, but it's nice to be able to put bounds on the result by using best- and worst-case guesses here.