bg24
Subscription is to drive adoption - fixed cost, can adjust the usage eg. give resets, increase quota based on capacity available. We subscribers tend to take it as a mandatory benefit :-) For labs, it is not letting the capacity go waste.
api is the $$ driver - pay per use, enterprises.
Right now, Kimi needs to first hit the subscribers at the level of OpenAI and Anthropic. With the api usage skyrocketing due to K3, it will be clear in a few months on the actual subscription benefits.
This is the point. And what nobody seems to bring up that inference is a massively profitable margin. The labs can still grow at 80% margin as opposed to 99% margin (I do not have the numbers). But that will hurt the valuation and investors.
With protection from Govt, you can compete at 1.5 or 2x of the equivalent open weights price. But it is not sustainable to keep the prices high, just a matter of time.
Nobody can predict 5 year out. However, the country that can be ultra efficient by making their governance, health, manufacturing, military, etc AI-native will be far ahead in the game.
The lessons from steel, solar and EV needs to be learned by all lawmakers. You have to respect and learn from how China Government puts the system in place for complete industry takeover and they have been very good at it. The problem with AI is that democracies will be inherently slow in adopting AI, unless something changes in the system.
At minimum, every democratic Government (US, Europe, India) need to build long-term AI vision and execute that no matter which party comes to power. Additionally, be ruthless about protecting domestic labs. It can only be possible if the intelligence pricing by domestic labs per productive task is in the similar range as open-weights models. Right now, it is not the case, even if the article gives the example of Sol vs K3.
Protecting domestic labs means not bailout, but fast track to cheapest energy, fast track approval for data centers, enforce some guardrails so customers get to use the open weights models only hosted in the country by US (or Europe) businesses. Without these protections, it might be a slow death.
The value proposition is that 100's of providers and host and sell it. 1000s of businesses (eg. Microsoft, Databricks, Palantir to small startups) can run it, finetune it and own the IP and pay only for hosting.
On the other hand, you have OpenAI and Anthropic, who need to charge at 90%+ inference margin. It is because of 1) sunk cost, 2) sky-high salaries that they paid to keep the talent. Companies like Meta screwed things up badly by paying billions of $ for chief engineers.
Chinese labs are doing a favor to the world. But I can also say with 100% certainty that if US labs were to close shops next year, Chinese labs would immediately start charging $$. In fact, I think it might happen with open weights model soon. But still these fees will be one-fifth or one-tenth per token. Also it does not come with all the guardrails.
Solution: US labs need to reduce their costs, cut the salaries across the board and compete. AI and robotics are the last hope of US to get back to industrialization and continue being the superpower.
This time, it is different with AI. The rate of change is significant.
“The lawmakers said a recent analysis by a commercial company provided to the committee indicates that these devices may potentially collect and transmit extensive user data -- including sensitive personal information to servers under Chinese jurisdiction without explicit user consent.”
While it is obvious to many, a modern LLM is built in roughly three stages: the foundation (pretraining) model, then SFT/supervised fine-tuning (distillation makes it easy), then the RL/RLHF stage on top (most effort-intensive). For today's reasoning models, RL/RLHF is becoming the most compute-intensive part.
Companies like Anthropic spent millions building those fine-tuning examples. A follower can shortcut that on both cost and time by distilling, and it will keep happening: every time the frontier lab climbs higher, others will find a way to shortcut the new gap. There's very little Anthropic can do beyond fraud prevention and blocking accounts that violate their terms of service.
On the policy question, I'm completely against banning Chinese models. I'm a heavy Claude Code user and I'll keep being one. But there should absolutely be price competition. China is eating the rest of the world for breakfast, lunch and dinner on manufacturing, and it did not help to ban them. Frontier pricing can't sit at 10x a capable competitor. It doesn't need to be at par either — demand is higher, and quality, trust, and fewer tokens to finish a task are worth a premium — but 4–5x is defensible.
OP is about modeling distilling the capabilities.
It is a umbrella enterprise.
1/ Jailbreak => Rapid catchup of the industry leading to commoditization
2/ Jailbreak => 99% of internet infrastructure gets exposed to cyberattacks at a scale the world is simply not ready. Maybe <1% of internet users are using Fable, out of which <1% will use it for beyond intended use. Put yourself in the shoes of someone maintaining critical infrastructure, or millions of people working 7 days a week to run a small business. The world needs some time to adapt.
I am rather more concerned about competition from CHINA. With how Huawei (2000 -> 2020) crushed every other telecom company and went from nobody to the most revered leader in 20 years, and with the depth of leadership in manufacturing and work culture, if China surpasses USA in AI, all US companies lose.
The other aspect is virality. I think by now the implementing team should know that most people do not appreciate Claud inserting itself into the commit message. It's the job of the team to feed that to the leadership.