belly_joe

just let the "proto" do the work and enjoy the joke

I would say generally speaking that people who assume AI will replace somebody else's job believe that these jobs are merely mechanical and there is no high-level reasoning involved that would basically require AGI (when that comes about nobody is safe). So the model of the AI radiologist assumes the only job of a radiologist is to classify images, which is pretty vulnerable to near-future disruption.

I imagine, given the training involved, the job involves more than just looking at pictures? This is what I would like to see explained.

The analogy would be the "95% of code is written by AI" stat that gets trotted out, replacing code with image evaluation. Yes AI will write the code but someone has to tell the AI what to write which is the tricky part.

Yeah my understanding is that the balance of evidence on moderate alcohol consumption works this way as well (though with cancer and heart health reversed).

No, so long as they do so independently. However if they were to collude to suppress wages, then it becomes illegal.

In my experience, Spotify generally picks 20-40 top songs from each genre and recommends them to any listener that has showed interest in that genre.

To a listener new to the genre, this yields a pretty good hit rate and the perception that Spotify is great at recommendation, but after spending any reasonable amount of time listening to the genre, the same 20-40 recommendations get stale and Spotify is completely unable to surface relevant songs from deeper in the genre catalog.

Yes, plus it's also risky as a store of value for someone even if they are complying with local law. There are greater opportunities for fraud as well as the risk the regulatory environment can change at any time.

Interesting that GOP confidence is down as well (since 2020)

Yeah in terms of greed it's really hard to say which of these two parties I detest more.

The wiki article cites this link:

https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/abortion-...

which does show many comparable countries, but it seems like much of the info is from ~10-15 years ago.

The dynamic sort of of reminds me of the "market for lemons" in that the bad drives out the good.

Not really quite the same though. The question is what the production function for articles looks like from the publisher/journalist perspective. If it's easier to produce clickbait articles than "real" articles then I think this effect is what we see in the market for news. But from another angle, it seems more labor intensive for a journalist to spin a weak finding into a strong finding than to simply report an exciting finding directly.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Market_for_Lemons

FWIW I'm currently in my late twenties / early thirties and I also think the tech of 10-15 years ago was optimal.

Hypothesis 1: The 90s-00s really were the peak and it's not just a generational effect

Hypothesis 2: The nostalgia I currently feel is bad enough but oh god it's just going to get worse isn't it?

Yeah in my experience the need to be distracted can always find an expression even after eliminating individual outlets.

Still, there are marginal benefits to reducing the quality of the distraction by banning myself from those I most enjoy.

Most of the growth in Chinese carbon emissions (>90%) is due to growth Chinese consumption, not exports.

https://ourworldindata.org/co2/country/china

This seems like it's merely codifying a practice that already existed de facto. I doubt Harvard had a specific social media monitoring policy in place when it rescinded admissions from the admits posting offensive memes, but that didn't really mean anything to the kids who got un-admitted.(1)

Not sure what to think of how big a step this is.

[1] (https://www.thecrimson.com/article/2017/6/5/2021-offers-resc...)

True, but to be fair a null result is much more interesting (and thus publishable) when it cuts against a large body of prior empirical work or theory.

Thinking specifically of Card and Krueger (1994) finding zero impact of the minimum wage on employment

I think the chief complaint of the analysts is less about the total hours worked than the fact that much of the grinding is not productive.

From what I recall, the issue was that management knew analyst time was not valuable at all, and so it was common practice for them to leave the office at 7pm with an "i need this by tomorrow" order for client materials that were meant for speculative pitching rather than supporting a live deal.

Thus the analyst ends up getting holidays and weekends crushed repeatedly by projects that aren't really that meaningful and could have been spread out in a much more manageable way if the higher ups had given any consideration at all to what they were asking.

I feel the sound -> stress connection palpably. Especially sudden loud noises like a horn honking cause me to feel upset for a long while after being startled.

Seems like a convincing argument to me for car-free spaces, although honestly I just wish we had stronger social norms against unnecessarily using a car's horn.

I agree with this broadly.

I find it interesting that most of my friends/social set will (rightly) dismiss "high school health class" fearmongering over drugs, but when that drug is anabolic steroids suddenly every warning is true.

It seems reasonable to me that the same skepticism applied to claims about any drug's danger - claims which frankly derive from government sources interested primarily in social engineering - should also be applied to steroids.

What I like about this reply is that I think the best answers are probably the ones you don't immediately think of, as they've changed things so immensely that they're now a component of cultural background noise.

FWIW, I remember my uncle in 2007 trying to game his contract with Verizon just so he could get AT&T and the iPhone. I thought he was being stupid for what I gathered was a useless toy. But now...

Heh, same. All I have to do is wait 30 years and everyone will stop bothering me!

They do in their model. Being Asian carries with it the worst relative odds of being hired, though it is not responsible for the overall negative non-white male coefficient (Black and Hispanic applicants also have negative coefficients in the logit)

GOP senators going through these motions is kind of like a weird mirror image of when the Dems bring in the relevant CEO from the latest financial fraud for grilling, but no relevant laws get changed

I think this is a good point that doesn't get discussed enough.

Was Bell bad for the consumer? Yes, probably. Was the benefit of the increase in innovation a net benefit for society when compared to deadweight loss incurred by monopoly pricing? I don't know.

There is almost no way to answer this question in a rigorous manner, and yet it's extremely important for policy. The only thing I can think of is experiment over a long period of time between distinct geographies and see what happens.

Seconded on the imposter syndrome point. I definitely have days in my life when my internal narrative sounds just like your post, but if I take a step back I'm much further along than at those low points.

Another issue is that it's entirely possible that your current role doesn't challenge you to learn or retain CS concepts nor deeper aspects of the practical tools you use. Many jobs can be done very well using the same shallow toolkit repeatedly. If that's the case, it's not really a question of your ability, but maybe you can start actively looking for projects to force yourself to start learning more.

I feel this deeply. I was extremely lazy in high school and college and then got my act together gradually throughout my 20s to the point where I feel like I no longer waste much time. I've experienced some success and accomplished goals as a result, but when I look back on my life, I remember those hours wasted playing video games most fondly.

There's a motivational saying that when you die you get to meet the person you could have become, and that's your individual heaven/hell. I've got a nagging fear that maybe if I learn to speak French or sell a business or whatever, raise a family, grow old and die, I'll come face to face with the guy who played 10,000 hours of Civ.

There are many reasons why China catches heat for this.

China is big so when it does things like this it tends to have a larger impact than other countries' practices. Also it has been growing very fast, and we tend to notice things that are changing. China's assertiveness on the world stage also causes anxiety which has a halo effect on China's other actions/policies.

Is there a way to check local insect levels without harming their populations?

A lot of comments in here have been anecdotal observations of pretty big population swings and I too (in the northeast of the USA) have noticed the insect populations have increased over the past two years after a nadir in prior years, but I have no real way of determining what's going on scientifically.

Wondering if anyone has experience doing something like this: https://rodaleinstitute.org/science/articles/how-to-monitor-...

As someone who's lived in both New York and Los Angeles, I find the car-centric low density city to be a much more pleasant living experience. In either case, my commute to work was around 45 minutes, but in NY I faced a great deal more noise pollution as well as bad weather, crowding etc. A car commute doesn't deal with any of that.

I'm open to arguments about environmental impact (and also others may prefer the NY style of living and that's fine too), but I generally see a lot of negativity about cars on in this (HN) culture that runs counter to my own preferences, and the apparent revealed preferences of a huge portion of Americans. Inflated real estate costs due to lack of mobility also meant I could afford a much bigger place in LA than in Manhattan.

Came here to say the same.

At least personally, it's the insight into human brain mechanics and new abilities to test hypotheses in this field that gets me most excited about deep learning developments, rather than the improvements in performance on various tasks.

I'm 30, in grad school, and moved back in with my parents just prior to the corona lockdown.

I didn't break my old lease, so I didn't save much money until last month when the lease was up. I thought I was going to move out again around August but with nothing opening up I don't really see a point in it, and will probably live here for the foreseeable future. Plus, I actually really enjoy living at home.

I feel vaguely embarrassed about it but with nothing open it doesn't really come up much.